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Africa 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Theodore Ahlers
  • Harinder S. Kohli
  • Anil Sood

Abstract

This article offers a vision of what Africa could be in 2050. In such a scenario, average per capita income would increase six-fold, an additional 1.4 billion Africans would join the middleclass, the number of poor would shrink to fewer than 50 million, and Africa’s share of global gross domestic product (GDP) would triple. For people, the biggest change would be better, less vulnerable jobs with higher productivity; for economies, dramatic productivity increases driven by private sector investment, diversification, and more competition; and for the continent, better integrated sub-regions and relations with the world based on trade and investment rather than aid. In the face of a multi-polar global economy, aging and population growth, increased competition for natural resources, rapid innovation, climate change, urbanization, and natural resource wealth, Africa needs to manage the risk of fragility and conflict, inequality, and the middle-income trap to achieve such a vision.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Ahlers & Harinder S. Kohli & Anil Sood, 2013. "Africa 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 5(3), pages 153-213, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:153-213
    DOI: 10.1177/0974910113505790
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jack Boorman & José Fajgenbaum & Hervé Ferhani & Manu Bhaskaran & Drew Arnold & Harpaul Alberto Kohli, 2013. "The Centennial Resilience Index: Measuring Countries' Resilience to Shock," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 5(2), pages 57-98, May.
    2. World Bank, 2011. "Global Development Horizons 2011 : Multipolarity - The New Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2313, December.
    3. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6507, December.
    4. Harinder S. Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood, 2011. "Realizing the Asian Century: A Strategic Framework," Book Chapters, in: Harinder Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood (ed.), Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 63-70, Emerging Markets Forum.
    5. Claudio M. Loser & Anil Sood, 2013. "Breaking Away from Mediocre Complacency to a Prosperous Future," Book Chapters, in: Harinder Kohli & Claudio Loser & Anil Sood (ed.), Latin America 2040 — Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence, edition 2, chapter 1, pages 25-73, Emerging Markets Forum.
    6. Harinder S. Kohli, 2011. "Realizing the Asian Century: Asia's Role in the World," Book Chapters, in: Harinder Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood (ed.), Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, edition 1, chapter 15, pages 275-281, Emerging Markets Forum.
    7. Arvis, Jean-François & Shepherd, Ben, 2011. "The air connectivity index : measuring integration in the global air transport network," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5722, The World Bank.
    8. Harinder Kohli & Ashok Sharma & Anil Sood & Haruhiko Kuroda, 2011. "Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century: Overview," Other Working Papers asia2050overview, Emerging Markets Forum.
    9. Claudio Loser & José Fajgenbaum, 2012. "A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 155-195, May.
    10. Duggan, Victor & Rahardja, Sjamsu & Varela, Gonzalo, 2013. "Service sector reform and manufacturing productivity : evidence from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6349, The World Bank.
    11. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798, December.
    12. Claudio Loser & Harinder Kohli & Héctor Aguilar Camin & Drew Arnold & Mahmood Ayub & José Fajgenbaum & Herve Fehrani & Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Anil Sood & Y. Aaron Szyf & Juan Pardinas & Manuel Molano, 2012. "A New Vision for Mexico 2042: Achieving Prosperity for All: Executive Report," Other Working Papers mexico2042executive, Emerging Markets Forum.
    13. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191, December.
    14. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    15. Jack Boorman & José Fajgenbaum & Hervé Ferhani & Manu Bhaskaran & Drew Arnold & Harpaul Alberto Kohli, 2013. "The Centennial Resilience Index: Measuring Countries’ Resilience to Shock," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 5(2), pages 57-98, May.
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