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“We’d Have to Sink the Ships†: Impact Studies and the 2002 West Coast Port Lockout

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  • Peter V. Hall

    (University of Waterloo)

Abstract

During the West Coast port lockout in fall 2002, a widely quoted estimate claimed that a 10-day shutdown of port facilities would cost the U.S. economy $1.94 billion a day. This article argues that the estimated economic losses were vastly over inflated, and the episode provides an opportunity to reflect on the use of economic impact studies to study short-term disruptions of infrastructure services. Port impact studies are deficient in this task because they do not adequately address the possibilities for substitution, even in the short run. In part, this is because port impact studies are poorly designed to deal with the changing nature of the relationship between seaport operations and regional economic development. Impact studies assume a continuous monotonic relationship between cargo throughput and economic measures. This ignores the fact that port-using firms have differential abilities to adjust to disruptions and that their adjustment behavior creates both losers and winners.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter V. Hall, 2004. "“We’d Have to Sink the Ships†: Impact Studies and the 2002 West Coast Port Lockout," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 18(4), pages 354-367, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ecdequ:v:18:y:2004:i:4:p:354-367
    DOI: 10.1177/0891242404269500
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David Jaffee, 2010. "Labor and the Geographic Reorganization of Container Shipping in the U.S," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 520-539, December.
    2. A. M. P. Santos & R. Salvador & C. Guedes Soares, 2018. "A dynamic view of the socioeconomic significance of ports," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(2), pages 169-189, June.
    3. Jitendra Parajuli & Kingsley E. Haynes, 2018. "Transportation network analysis in Nepal: a step toward critical infrastructure protection," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 101-116, December.
    4. Park, Jin Suk & Seo, Young-Joon, 2016. "The impact of seaports on the regional economies in South Korea: Panel evidence from the augmented Solow model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 107-119.
    5. Jiyoung Park & Peter Gordon & James E. Moore Ii & Harry W. Richardson, 2008. "The State‐by‐State Economic Impacts of the 2002 Shutdown of the Los Angeles–Long Beach Ports," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 548-572, December.

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