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A Fuzzy Systems Model of Arms Transfer Outcomesxs

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  • Gregory S. Sanjian

    (Department of Political Science Bucknell University)

Abstract

This paper presents a fuzzy systems model of the effects of U.S. and USSR arms transfers on the political and strategic relationships between India and Pakistan during the period 1951–1976. The relationships between the importers are represented in the model by two system transformation equations. These equations stipulate that changes from t to t+1 (where t = one year) in the political and strategic relationships between India and Pakistan will be functions of those actors' relationships at t and U.S. and USSR arms transfers during the same time period. The political and strategic relationships between India and Pakistan are represented in the model by fuzzy variables: one variable identifies the degree to which there is political cooperation between the importers; another measures the degree of military balance. The model is tested by using COPDAB and SIPRI data on political relations, the military balance, and arms transfer inputs at t to predict the fuzzy levels of cooperation and military balance between India and Pakistan at t+1 (for every year of the 1951–1976 time frame). Pearson product-moment correlations between, on the one hand, the predicted levels of cooperation and military balance and, on the other hand, observations on those variables at t+I are r = .77 (for cooperation) and r = .75 (for military balance).

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory S. Sanjian, 1995. "A Fuzzy Systems Model of Arms Transfer Outcomesxs," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:14:y:1995:i:1:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1177/073889429501400101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brzoska, Michael & Ohlson, Thomas, 1987. "Arms Transfers to the Third World, 1971-85," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198291169.
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