IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rom/terumm/v16y2021i2p72-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Risk Factors And Expected Return: Evidence From Upside And Downside Market Conditions In Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Abraham Oketooyin GBADEBO

    (Osun State University, Osogbo, Faculty of Management Sciences, Department of Banking and Finance)

  • Yusuf Olatunji OYEDEKO

    (The Federal University of Oye-Ekiti, Faculty of Management Sciences, Department of Banking and Finance)

Abstract

This paper examines the economic risk factors and expected return, emphasizing Nigeria's upside and downside market conditions. The study adopted an experimental research design. All the quoted companies in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) served as the population from December 2005 to December 2018. The study espoused a purposive sampling method to select 41 companies' stocks frequently traded throughout the study period. The study employed purely secondary from NSE Factbook of various issues and Central Bank Statistical Bulletin. The dependent variable (stock prices from NSE Factbook while the macroeconomic factors (Inflation, exchange rate, monetary policy rate, oil price, and money supply) were from the Central Bank of Nigeria's annual statistical bulletin. The paper used the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique in estimating their parameters both at the first and second pass regression models. Findings revealed the existence of observed and unobserved risk factors in the upside and downside market in Nigeria. The study also documents that economic risk significantly commands a market premium in both the upside and downside market phase. Besides, the finding observed that factor likelihood appears to be superior to the macroeconomic variable model. The study concluded that economic risk factors significantly explain average returns variations in the Nigerian capital market, notably when the market scaled downward. The research suggests that investors in the Nigerian capital market should consider: financial, diversifiable risks, and unobservables in the determination of expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Abraham Oketooyin GBADEBO & Yusuf Olatunji OYEDEKO, 2021. "Economic Risk Factors And Expected Return: Evidence From Upside And Downside Market Conditions In Nigeria," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(2), pages 72-88, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:rom:terumm:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:72-88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://um.ase.ro/no162/5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
    3. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Olatunji Oyedeko & Olusola Segun Kolawole & Isah Ibrahim & Olena Zharikova, 2023. "Risk-Return Relationship in the Nigerian Stock Market: Comparative between Fama-French Five-Factor Model and Higher Moment Fama-French Five-Factor Model," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 1, pages 68-78, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tinic, Murat & Sensoy, Ahmet & Demir, Muge & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Broker Network Connectivity and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 104719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bai, Jushan & Ando, Tomohiro, 2013. "Multifactor asset pricing with a large number of observable risk factors and unobservable common and group-specific factors," MPRA Paper 52785, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
    3. Saggese, Pietro & Belmonte, Alessandro & Dimitri, Nicola & Facchini, Angelo & Böhme, Rainer, 2023. "Arbitrageurs in the Bitcoin ecosystem: Evidence from user-level trading patterns in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 251-270.
    4. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, March.
    5. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    6. Fatemi, Ali M. & Tavakkol, Amir & Dukas, Stephen P., 1996. "Foreign exchange exposure and the pricing of exchange rate risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 169-189.
    7. Bas Peeters & Cees L. Dert & André Lucas, 2003. "Black Scholes for Portfolios of Options in Discrete Time: the Price is Right, the Hedge is wrong," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-090/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Guy Ta, 1994. "Are Real Estate and Securities Markets Integrated? Some Australian Evidence," Working Paper Series 42, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Karagiannidis, Iordanis & Vozlyublennaia, Nadia, 2016. "Limits to mutual funds' ability to rely on mean/variance optimization," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 282-292.
    10. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2019. "Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 323-335, November.
    11. Eom, Cheoljun, 2017. "Two-faced property of a market factor in asset pricing and diversification effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 190-199.
    12. Jaime Alberto Vásquez & John Willmer Escobar & Diego Fernando Manotas, 2021. "AHP–TOPSIS Methodology for Stock Portfolio Investments," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Majeed, Raseena & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Impact of macroeconomic variables on shariah stock markets: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 106118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kiran Lohano & Muhammad Kashif, 2018. "Testing asset pricing models on the Pakistan Stock Exchange," Business Review, School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, July-Dece.
    15. Lorella Fatone & Francesca Mariani, 2019. "Systemic risk governance in a dynamical model of a banking system," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 75(3), pages 851-883, November.
    16. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    17. Peter Carr & Dilip Madan, 2012. "Factor Models for Option Pricing," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(4), pages 319-329, November.
    18. Sawaliya, Priya & Sinha, Pankaj, 2018. "Behaviour of asset pricing models in pre and post-recession period: an evidence from India," MPRA Paper 93084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Jan 2019.
    19. Sinha, Amit & Horvath, Philip A. & Beason, Tyler & Roos, Kelly R., 2019. "Simulation of a financial market: The possibility of catastrophic disequilibrium," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 13-16.
    20. W. B. Brueggeman & A. H. Chen & T. G. Thibodeau, 1984. "Real Estate Investment Funds: Performance and Portfolio Considerations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 333-354, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rom:terumm:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:72-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Colesca Sofia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ccasero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.