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Macroeconomic Estimations For The Romanian “Pre-Accession Economic Program” (The 2003 Version)

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Author Info

  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    ()
    (National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence of many under performing companies, under use or even complete blockage of other capacities, undercapitalization of a large part of the viable part of the economy, a relatively high burden of taxation. On the demand side, one can mention the contraction of real absorption and limited access to the external markets. The implications of Balassa – Samuelson effect is taken into account. The second and third sections discuss the computational hypothesis and numerical estimations for two scenarios, a desirable and a moderate one, considered by the author as the most relevant for the period 2003-2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 23-49

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:4:p:23-49

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Keywords: economic models; macroeconomics; forecasting; economic growth;

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