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Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries

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Author Info
Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana () (Babe Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Cluj-Napoca, Romania)
Abstract

hypothesis (GLE) for the Central and Eastern European Countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia) through cointegration and causality tests. The estimation is carried out within finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) models in levels, in first-differences and error correction models. When considering bivariate systems, causality from exports to GDP is obtained for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Causality from GDP to exports is indicated for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia. We also investigate if the above results still hold when including the other relevant component of the foreign trade, i.e. imports. In trivariate systems, ELG remains valid in the Czech Republic only and becomes valid in Lithuania while GLE is validated in Hungary, Romania and Slovenia.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 105-117
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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:2:p:105-117

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Related research
Keywords: CEE countries; exports; economic growth; imports; cointegration; Granger causality;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-13.

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