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Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries

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Author Info

  • Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana

    ()
    (Babe Bolyai University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Cluj-Napoca, Romania)

Abstract

hypothesis (GLE) for the Central and Eastern European Countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia) through cointegration and causality tests. The estimation is carried out within finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) models in levels, in first-differences and error correction models. When considering bivariate systems, causality from exports to GDP is obtained for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Causality from GDP to exports is indicated for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia. We also investigate if the above results still hold when including the other relevant component of the foreign trade, i.e. imports. In trivariate systems, ELG remains valid in the Czech Republic only and becomes valid in Lithuania while GLE is validated in Hungary, Romania and Slovenia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 105-117

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:2:p:105-117

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Related research

Keywords: CEE countries; exports; economic growth; imports; cointegration; Granger causality;

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Cited by:
  1. Daniela Zapodeanu & Mihail Ioan Cociuba, 2010. "Linking Money Supply With The Gross Domestic Product In Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(12), pages 50.
  2. Dajcman, Silvio & Festic, Mejra, 2012. "The Interdependence of the Stock Markets of Slovenia, The Czech Republic and Hungary with Some Developed European Stock Markets – The Effects of Joining the European Union and the Global Financial C," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 163-180, December.
  3. Simut Ramona, 2012. "The Impact Of Investments, Exports, And Openness On Economic Growth. A Comparative Study On The East European Countries," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 420-425, December.

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