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Graphing and Measuring COVID-19’s First Wave Impact on the Bolivian Economy: Facing the Unknown

Author

Listed:
  • Barja, Gover

    (Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo")

Abstract

The Bolivian monthly index of economic activity along with ARMA models are used in an attempt to graph and measure the impact of COVID-19’s pandemic on the Bolivian economy. The accumulated difference between the observed and counterfactual values, show an overall 12.6% loss of economic activity in the 10 months from February to November 2020 of the first COVID-19 wave, with a tilted W-shape short-run recovery just before the beginning of the second wave in December 2020. Breakdown into the twelve Bolivian economic sectors show wide heterogeneity in depth of impact and speeds of recovery during the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Barja, Gover, 2021. "Graphing and Measuring COVID-19’s First Wave Impact on the Bolivian Economy: Facing the Unknown," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 36, pages 7-42, Noviembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1993
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    Cited by:

    1. Nogales, Ricardo & Alcaraz, Andrea & Lopez, David & Ravillard, Pauline & Ballón, Sergio & Carvalho Metanias Hallack, Michelle, 2023. "Economic Impacts of a Supporting Scheme on Domestic Energy Consumption in Bolivia: A Quasi-experimental Approach," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12877, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Interrupted time series analysis; ARMA-GARCH models; Bolivia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • Y10 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Data: Tables and Charts - - - Data: Tables and Charts

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