Can risk modeling work?
AbstractDoes the 2007/08 market crisis herald the end of risk modeling and the empirical method? This paper supports the hypothesis that recent risk modeling problems were caused by the use of inappropriate risk models which are fixable rather than fundamentally flawed. An extensive analysis including the sub-prime crisis shows that GARCH-based risk measures offer a potential solution to these problems. The paper also explores some risk modeling issues that arose during the crisis such as the appropriate choice of sample size and how to incorporate dynamic feedback effects into a risk model used for stress-testing. I illustrate a stress-testing method that applies the GARCH approach but results in relatively stable capital requirements preferred by practitioners. This method appears to address some of the concerns raised by regulators with respect to stress-testing practices during the market turbulence and would result in more conservative gearing levels for financial institutions.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Capco Institute in its journal Journal of Financial Transformation.
Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 120 Broadway, 29th Floor New York, NY 10271
Phone: +1 212 284 8600
Web page: http://www.capco.com/
Financial crisis; risk modeling; GARCH-based risk measures;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Gola Carlo & Ilari Antonio, 2013. "Financial innovation oversight: a policy framework," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 200, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Allen, David E. & Singh, Abhay K. & Powell, Robert J., 2013. "EVT and tail-risk modelling: Evidence from market indices and volatility series," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 355-369.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Springett).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.