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Models of Banks Ratings

Author

Listed:
  • Karminsky, Alexandr

    (Higher School of Economics, Moscow)

  • Peresetsky, Anatoly

    (Higher School of Economics, CEMI RAS and NES, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper studies the banks ratings models developed by using publicly available financial indicators. Models for Moody’s ratings of long-term deposits in foreign currency are constructed. The database includes banks financial data of emerging markets and the European Union. Additionally, financial macroeconomic variables and the country’s rating are considered as key factors. The hypothesis of the negative trend in ratings is tested. The forecast power has been improved by nonlinear rescaling of banks financial indicators. The agency approach to determining emerging market banks ratings is examined. Models of Russian banks ratings are constructed.

Suggested Citation

  • Karminsky, Alexandr & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2007. "Models of Banks Ratings," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 5(1), pages 3-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig Mackinlay, 1998. "The Declining Credit Quality of U.S. Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1389-1413, August.
    2. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
    3. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    4. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    5. repec:fth:pennfi:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Karminsky & Richard Hainsworth & Vasily Solodkov, 2013. "Arm’s Length Method for Comparing Rating Scales," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(2), pages 114-135, December.
    2. Aivazian, Sergey & Golovan, Sergey & Karminsky, Alexander & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2011. "An approach to ratings mapping," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 23(3), pages 13-40.
    3. Zhivaikina, A. & Peresetsky, A., 2017. "Russian Bank Credit Ratings and Bank License Withdrawal 2012-2016," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 49-80.
    4. Anatoly Peresetsky, Alexander Karminsky, 2011. "Models for Moody’s Bank Ratings," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 88-110, April.
    5. Alexander M. Karminsky & Ella Khromova, 2016. "Modelling banks’ credit ratings of international agencies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(3), pages 341-363, December.
    6. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2008_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alexander Karminsky, 2016. "Rating models: emerging market distinctions," Papers 1607.02422, arXiv.org.
    9. Alexander M. Karminsky & Sergei Grishunin & Natalya Dyachkova & Maxim Bisenov, 2020. "The comparison of empirical methods for modeling credit ratings of industrial companies from BRICS countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 333-348, June.
    10. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2009. "Models for the External Support Component of Moody's Bank Ratings," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 14(2), pages 3-23.
    11. Ошерович Инна Львовна, 2015. "Анализ вероятностных соответствий меж ду рейтингами ведущих меж дународных компаний Moody’s, Fitch и standard&poor’s," Вестник Финансового университета, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 3 (87), pages 136-148.
    12. Alexander M. Karminsky & Ella Khromova, 2018. "Increase of banks’ credit risks forecasting power by the usage of the set of alternative models," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(2), pages 155-174, June.
    13. Karminsky, A. & Dyachkova, N., 2020. "Empirical study of the relationship between credit cycles and changes in credit ratings," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 138-160.
    14. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2019. "The finer points of model comparison in machine learning: forecasting based on russian banks’ data," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps43, Bank of Russia.
    15. Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
    16. Anatoly Peresetsky, Alexander Karminsky, 2011. "Models for Moody’s Bank Ratings," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 88-110, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank ratings; Moody’s; rating’s models; ordered probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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