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Politique optimale de change pour la Tunisie

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  • Moussa, Hassouna

    (Département de Sciences Économiques, Université Acadia)

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    Abstract

    Transactions and uncertainty costs aside, economic theory suggests that a flexible exchange rate is the optimal choice for a small country that has a relatively large non-traded goods sector and for which the symmetric shocks are not important. The macroeconomic data for Tunisia covering the period 1961-1997 show that the non-traded goods sector is important. Two separate VAR models for Tunisia and France, the principal trading partner of Tunisia, were estimated. The models produced estimates of supply shocks and monetary and non-monetary demand shocks for each country. The study of the correlation of the shocks across the two countries shows that the symmetric shocks are not important. Accordingly, a flexible exchange rate is the optimal choice for Tunisia pending deeper economic integration of Tunisia in the European economy. Nonobstant les coûts de transactions et d’incertitude, la théorie économique suggère qu’un taux de change flexible soit le meilleur choix pour un petit pays dont le secteur des produits non échangeables est important et dans lequel les chocs symétriques sont peu importants. Utilisant des données macroéconomiques couvrant la période 1961-1997, on montre dans un premier temps que le secteur des produits non échangeables en Tunisie est important. Dans un deuxième temps on estime un modèle VAR pour la Tunisie et un autre pour la France. Ceci permet d’estimer des chocs d’offre et des chocs de demande monétaires et non monétaires qui ont affecté les deux pays durant la période 1961-1997. L’étude des corrélations entre les chocs montre que les chocs symétriques sont peu importants. On en conclut qu’il serait mieux pour la Tunisie de continuer à opérer avec un régime de taux de change flottant en attendant une intégration plus grande avec l’économie européenne.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 77 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 (mars)
    Pages: 113-132

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:77:y:2001:i:1:p:113-132

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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
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