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Escenarios de futuro y sus repercusiones sobre la agricultura de regadío: El caso de la zona regable de Arévalo-Madrigal (Ávila)

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  • Jordi Gallego Ayala
  • José Antonio Gómez-Limón Rodríguez
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    Abstract

    RESUMEN La agricultura se encuentra inmersa en un profundo proceso de cambio. Dentro de este contexto, el objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los impactos socioeconómicos y ambientales de diversos escenarios de futuro sobre un sistema agrario real; la zona regable de Arévalo-Madrigal (Ávila). La simulación del comportamiento productivo de los agricultores ante los diversos escenarios de futuro planteados se ha llevado a cabo utilizando modelos de programación matemática positiva. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concretar la influencia de los diferentes vectores de cambio, evidenciando el interés de este tipo de trabajo de prospectiva para la toma de decisiones públicas en el ámbito de la agricultura. ABSTRACT Agriculture is undergoing a deep process of changes. Within this context, the main objective of this paper is to analyze the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of different future scenarios on a concrete agricultural system; Arévalo-Madrigal irrigated district in the province of Ávila. The simulations of farmers’ behaviour in some future scenarios have been carried out using positive mathematical programming models. The results obtained enable us to quantify the influence of the different driving forces, pointing out the utility of this prospective analysis to support public decision-making in agriculture.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Universidades Públicas de Andalucía in its journal Revista de Estudios Regionales.

    Volume (Year): 02 (2010)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 111-143

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    Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:02:y:2010:p:111-143

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    Related research

    Keywords: Prospectiva; Política agraria común; Programación matemática positiva; Simulación; Indicadores de sostenibilidad; Prospective; Common Agriculture Policy; Positive Mathematical Programming; Simulation; Sustainability indicators;

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