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Modelos de elección discreta aplicados a la estimación del comercio interregional en Andalucía

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  • JOSé MANUEL RUEDA CANTUCHE
  • José Antonio Ordaz Sanz
  • FLOR MARíA GUERRERO CASAS

Abstract

RESUMEN La estimación del comercio interregional dentro de una economía se sitúa generalmente dentro del contexto de los modelos input-output multirregionales. Existen métodos que realizan estimaciones directas basadas en datos reales utilizando información sobre flujos comerciales internacionales, flujos de transporte y/o encuestas dirigidas a productores y consumidores. Junto a ellos, existen otros métodos que proporcionan estimaciones indirectas. No obstante, la ausencia de información precisa al respecto es apreciable en este campo. Centrándose en el caso de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía, el presente trabajo aporta como principal contribución el uso de modelos econométricos de elección discreta para completar la información que sobre el comercio interregional se deriva de las encuestas a nivel de establecimientos. En particular, la información proporcionada acerca de los orígenes y destinos de los productos por parte de los comerciantes mayoristas e intermediarios de comercio en Andalucía para 1995 sirve de base para el análisis. El resultado final muestra cómo los intercambios comerciales interregionales entre Andalucía y el resto de España giran en torno a tres variables fundamentales: la localización geográfica de los establecimientos mayoristas, el empleo y el margen comercial de cada producto. ABSTRACT Interregional trade within an economy is generally estimated on an interregional or multirregional input-output context. There are methods that estimate directly trade flows using actual databases of international flows, transport flows and/or surveys to producers and consumers. There are other methods that provide indirect estimations as well. However, accurate information on this issue is highly scarce. Focusing on Andalusia, this paper provides as a new contribution the way to use discrete choice econometric models in order to fill the missing data derived from trade surveys. In particular, the analysis is carried out with survey-based information on interregional wholesale trade flows in 1995 for the Andalusian economy. Final results show that interregional trade flows between Andalusia and the rest of Spain revolve around three crucial variables: the geographical location of wholesalers’ establishments, employment and individual trade margins.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidades Públicas de Andalucía in its journal Revista de Estudios Regionales.

Volume (Year): 01 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 111-145

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Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:01:y:2008:p:111-145

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Keywords: Economía regional; Flujos comerciales; Modelos de elección discreta; Comercio interregional;

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