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Quelques éléments de réflexion au sujet des cycles Kondratieff

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  • Éric Bosserelle
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    Abstract

    [fre] Remis au premier plan depuis deux décennies par la crise contemporaine, dont le caractère structurel et durable est plus que jamais perceptible, le cycle Kondratieff, aujourd'hui comme hier, est toujours vivement controversé. L'objet de ce papier n'est pas de faire le point sur l'état actuel des débats et questionnements à son sujet, mais plus modestement, d'attirer l'attention sur quelques problèmes fondamentaux relatifs au champ d'investigation qui s'est constitué autour de cette problématique. Il semble en effet, que la réflexion relative aux longues fluctuations de la croissance capitaliste, laisse en suspend de nombreuses questions non résolues ou tout au moins insuffisamment prises en compte dans les développements contemporains. Cinq points sont successivement abordés : la question de savoir si les fluctuations de type Kondratieff sont, ou non, propres à l'ère du capitalisme industriel; le problème de l'articulation des différents types de fluctua- tions économiques; la question des «prix longs» et des problèmes de datation, en rapport avec la périodicité-cyclicité des mouvements ; enfin, la question des guerres. L'idée que la crédibilité de la problématique relative aux cycles longs, passe plus que jamais, par l'apport de réponses claires et cohérentes à ces questions, est finalement formulée. [eng] The Kondratieff cycle has been put back in the forefront for two decades now by the contemporary crisis, whose structural and durable character is more than ever perceptible. This cycle is, however, now as in the past, still deeply controversial. The object of this paper is not to take stock of the present state of the debate and of the questioning on this topic, but, more modestly, to draw attention to a few fundamental problems relative to the field of investigation that has been constituted around this set of problems. In fact, it seems that the reflection concerning the long cycles of capitalist growth leaves in abeyance numerous questions unanswered or at least insufficiently taken into account in contemporary explanations. Five points are tackled one after the other : the question to know whether the fluctuations of the Kondratieff type are proper or not to the era of industrial capitalism; the problem of the enumeration of the different types of economic fluctuations; the question of «longterm prices» and the dating problem, with regards to the periodicity and cyclical nature of the move- ments ; lastly, the questions of wars. The idea, which is finally formulated, is that the credibility of the set of problems concerning long cycles depends more than ever on giving clear and coherent answers to these questions.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/rfeco.1993.943
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

    Volume (Year): 8 (1993)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 147-193

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1993_num_8_4_943

    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1993.943
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/rfeco

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