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Estimation de la demande en eau d'irrigation sous incertitude

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  • Christophe Bontemps
  • Stéphane Couture
  • Pascal Favard

Abstract

[eng] Irrigation water demand estimation - In this paper, we considéra risk adverse farmer, facing sequential irrigation decisions under climatic uncertainty. In this complex framework, our goal is to estimate the irrigation water demand. The originality of this work lies, first, in the integration of a bio-simulation model (EPIC-Phase) into a programming model and, second, in the nonparametric estimation methods used. As a result we invalidate the literature's results on the subject. The irrigation water demand we get is not convex, which should have implications in terms of water policy. [fre] Dans cet article, nous considérons un agriculteur averse au risque, évoluant dans un contexte d'incertitude climatique, face à des décisions séquentielles d'irrigation. Dans ce cadre complexe, notre but est d'estimer la demande en eau d'irrigation. L'originalité de ce travail est d'une part, d'intégrer un modèle biophysique (EPIC-Phase), dans un modèle de programmation et d'autre part d'utiliser les méthodes non-paramétriques d'estimation. Au prix de cette complexité, nous invalidons les résultats de la littérature. En effet, la demande en eau d'irrigation que nous obtenons n'est pas convexe, ce qui devrait avoir des implications en termes de politique de l'eau.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ecoru.2003.5421
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie rurale.

Volume (Year): 276 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 17-24

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_2003_num_276_1_5421

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.2003.5421
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecoru

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