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La gestion du système de retraite face au vieillissement de la population

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  • Gilles Saint-Paul

Abstract

[ger] Die Verwaltung der Altersvorsorge angesichts des Alterns der Bevölkerung, . von Gilles Saint-Paul.. . Es wird zunächstvon der Beobachtung ausgegangen, dass das Altern der Bevölkerung den optimalen, intertemporalen Kurvenverlauf des Verbrauchs verändert. Dann werden die sich für die Verwaltung der Altersvorsorge ergebenden Folgen dieser Veränderung untersucht, und es soll herausgefunden werden, in welchem Masse es wünschenswert ist, das Umlageverfahren durch die freiwillige Ersparnis zu ersetzen. Das Interesse gilt auch der Stabilität des erreichten Gleichgewichts. Aus dieser Untersuchung geht hervor, dass mangels einer starken Beschleunigung des Wachstums eine Erhöhung der Beiträge und eine gleichzeitige bedeutsame Reduzierung der Leistungen angebrachtsind. [spa] La gestión del sistema de jubilaciones frente al envejecimiento de la población, . por Gilles Saint-Paul.. . Se observa ante todo la manera en que el envejecimiento de la población modifica el perfil intertemporal óptimo del consumo. Luego se examinan las consecuencias de esta modificación para la gestión del sistema de jubilaciones y se prétende ver en qué medida es de desear que el ahorro voluntario remplace la repartición. La estabilidad de los equilibrios obtenidos es tomada en cuenta. De este estudio se deduce que al faltar una fuerte aceleración del crecimiento, es deseable un aumento de las cotizaciones junto con una reducción sustancial de las prestaciones. [eng] The Management of Retirement Systems in view of the Ageing of the Population, . by Gilles Saint-Paul.. . This paper first points out the way in which the ageing of the population alters the optimal intertemporal consumption pattern. The consequences of this alteration on the management of the retirement system are then examined and an attempt is made to determine to what extent it is advisable to replace the allocation scheme by voluntary saving. The stability of equilibriums obtained is also touched upon. The outcome of this study is that, as long as economic growth is not fast enough, the best alternative is an increase in contributions with a substantial decrease in benefits. [fre] La gestion du système de retraites face au vieillissement de la population, . par Gilles Saint-Paul.. . On observe tout d'abord la manière dont le vieillissement de la population modifie le profil intertemporel optimal de la consommation. Puis on étudie les conséquences de cette modification pour la gestion du système de retraite et on cherche à voir dans quelle mesure il est souhaitable que l'épargne volontaire supplée à la répartition. On s'intéresse également à la stabilité des équilibres obtenus. Il résulte de cette étude qu'en l'absence d'une forte accélération de la croissance, une augmentation des cotisations accompagnée d'une réduction substantielle des prestations est souhaitable.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.1989.5121
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecop_0249-4744_1989_num_90_4_5121/ecop_0249-4744_1989_num_90_4_5121.pdf?mode=light
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 90 (1989)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 31-43

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1989_num_90_4_5121

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1989.5121
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David Cass & Menahem E. Yaari, 1966. "A Re-examination of the Pure Consumption Loans Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 353.
  3. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Davies, James B, 1981. "Uncertain Lifetime, Consumption, and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(3), pages 561-77, June.
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