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Modelování budoucího vývoje úhrnu pojistného a úhrnu vyplacených starobních důchodů v ČR
[Modelling of the Future Development of the Total Amount of Premium Paid and Total Amount of Old-Age Pensions in the Czech Republic]

Author

Listed:
  • Tomáš Fiala
  • Jitka Langhamrová

Abstract

The paper present a simple model of the future development of incomes and expenses of the old-age pension system in the Czech Republic (so called 1st pillar). The projection is based on the results of the latest available population projection published by the Czech Statistical Office in 2013. The expected number of employees (payers of the old-age insurance premium) is estimated on the basis of the sex and age structure of people in productive age and expected employment rates. All people at the age higher than retirement age are expected to receive old-age pension. The permanent increase of retirement age according to the present legislation is assumed. The computations show that the financial deficit of the old-age pension system would reach maximum values in the fifties when the numerous generations born in the seventies of the last century will reach the pension age. But in the last two decades of the present century the proportion of pensioners would be lower than at present times.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Fiala & Jitka Langhamrová, 2014. "Modelování budoucího vývoje úhrnu pojistného a úhrnu vyplacených starobních důchodů v ČR [Modelling of the Future Development of the Total Amount of Premium Paid and Total Amount of Old-Age Pension," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 232-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2014:y:2014:i:2:id:948:p:232-248
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jitka Bartošová & Tomáš Želinský, 2013. "The extent of poverty in the Czech and Slovak Republics 15 years after the split," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 119-131, March.
    2. Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2006. "Pension Reform : Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribution Schemes," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6983, December.
    3. Tomáš Fiala & Jitka Langhamrová, 2013. "Vývoj ekonomického a sociálního zatížení a stárnutí populace [Development of Economic and Social Dependency and Population Ageing]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 338-355.
    4. Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer & David Robalino, 2012. "Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World : Volume 1. Progress, Lessons, and Implementation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9378, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Czech Republic; population ageing; population projection; employment rates; retirement age; old-age pension system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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