IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0172355.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned

Author

Listed:
  • Pamela P Martinez
  • Robert C Reiner Jr.
  • Benjamin A Cash
  • Xavier Rodó
  • Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal
  • Manojit Roy
  • Mohammad Yunus
  • A S G Faruque
  • Sayeeda Huq
  • Aaron A King
  • Mercedes Pascual

Abstract

A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the winter (Dec-Feb) in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal outbreak of cholera following the monsoons from August to November. Climate studies have indicated a role of regional precipitation over Bangladesh in mediating this long-distance effect. Motivated by this previous evidence, we took advantage of the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event to evaluate the predictability of cholera dynamics for the city in recent times based on two transmission models that incorporate SST anomalies and are fitted to the earlier surveillance records starting in 1995. We implemented a mechanistic temporal model that incorporates both epidemiological processes and the effect of ENSO, as well as a previously published statistical model that resolves space at the level of districts (thanas). Prediction accuracy was evaluated with “out-of-fit” data from the same surveillance efforts (post 2008 and 2010 for the two models respectively), by comparing the total number of cholera cases observed for the season to those predicted by model simulations eight to twelve months ahead, starting in January each year. Although forecasts were accurate for the low cholera risk observed for the years preceding the 2015–2016 El Niño, the models also predicted a high probability of observing a large outbreak in fall 2016. Observed cholera cases up to Oct 2016 did not show evidence of an anomalous season. We discuss these predictions in the context of regional and local climate conditions, which show that despite positive regional rainfall anomalies, rainfall and inundation in Dhaka remained low. Possible explanations for these patterns are given together with future implications for cholera dynamics and directions to improve their prediction for the city.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela P Martinez & Robert C Reiner Jr. & Benjamin A Cash & Xavier Rodó & Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal & Manojit Roy & Mohammad Yunus & A S G Faruque & Sayeeda Huq & Aaron A King & Mercedes Pascual, 2017. "Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0172355
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172355
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0172355
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0172355&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0172355?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katia Koelle & Xavier Rodó & Mercedes Pascual & Md. Yunus & Golam Mostafa, 2005. "Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 696-700, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pearce, Joshua M. & Johnson, Sara J. & Grant, Gabriel B., 2007. "3D-mapping optimization of embodied energy of transportation," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 435-453.
    2. Margherita Grasso & Matteo Manera & Aline Chiabai & Anil Markandya, 2012. "The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, April.
    3. Adeboyejo Aina Thompson & Lirvhuwani Matamale & Shonisani Danisa Kharidza, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Children’s Health in Limpopo Province, South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Min Xu & Chunxiang Cao & Duochun Wang & Biao Kan, 2014. "Identifying Environmental Risk Factors of Cholera in a Coastal Area with Geospatial Technologies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Maile T Phillips & Katharine A Owers & Bryan T Grenfell & Virginia E Pitzer, 2020. "Changes in historical typhoid transmission across 16 U.S. cities, 1889-1931: Quantifying the impact of investments in water and sewer infrastructures," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Chengcheng Bei & Shiping Liu & Yin Liao & Gaoliang Tian & Zichen Tian, 2021. "Predicting new cases of COVID‐19 and the application to population sustainability analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4859-4884, September.
    7. Wang, Jinliang & Wu, Wenjing & Kuniya, Toshikazu, 2023. "Global threshold analysis on a diffusive host–pathogen model with hyperinfectivity and nonlinear incidence functions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 767-802.
    8. Sara L. M. Trærup & Ramon A. Ortiz & Anil Markandya, 2011. "The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Stephen Tennenbaum & Caroline Freitag & Svetlana Roudenko, 2014. "Modeling the Influence of Environment and Intervention onCholera in Haiti," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-36, September.
    10. Basilua Andre Muzembo & Kei Kitahara & Anusuya Debnath & Ayumu Ohno & Keinosuke Okamoto & Shin-Ichi Miyoshi, 2022. "Cholera Outbreaks in India, 2011–2020: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-27, May.
    11. Rachel E. Baker & Ayesha S. Mahmud & C. Jessica E. Metcalf, 2018. "Dynamic response of airborne infections to climate change: predictions for varicella," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 547-560, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0172355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.