IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0065276.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting U.S. Tuberculosis Case Counts through 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Rachel S Y e l k Woodruff
  • Carla A Winston
  • Roque Miramontes

Abstract

In 2010, foreign-born persons accounted for 60% of all tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States. Understanding which national groups make up the highest proportion of TB cases will assist TB control programs in concentrating limited resources where they can provide the greatest impact on preventing transmission of TB disease. The objective of our study was to predict through 2020 the numbers of U.S. TB cases among U.S.-born, foreign-born and foreign-born persons from selected countries of birth. TB case counts reported through the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System from 2000–2010 were log-transformed, and linear regression was performed to calculate predicted annual case counts and 95% prediction intervals for 2011–2020. Data were analyzed in 2011 before 2011 case counts were known. Decreases were predicted between 2010 observed and 2020 predicted counts for total TB cases (11,182 to 8,117 [95% prediction interval 7,262–9,073]) as well as TB cases among foreign-born persons from Mexico (1,541 to 1,420 [1,066–1,892]), the Philippines (740 to 724 [569–922]), India (578 to 553 [455–672]), Vietnam (532 to 429 [367–502]) and China (364 to 328 [249–433]). TB cases among persons who are U.S.-born and foreign-born were predicted to decline 47% (4,393 to 2,338 [2,113–2,586]) and 6% (6,720 to 6,343 [5,382–7,476]), respectively. Assuming rates of declines observed from 2000–2010 continue until 2020, a widening gap between the numbers of U.S.-born and foreign-born TB cases was predicted. TB case count predictions will help TB control programs identify needs for cultural competency, such as languages and interpreters needed for translating materials or engaging in appropriate community outreach.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel S Y e l k Woodruff & Carla A Winston & Roque Miramontes, 2013. "Predicting U.S. Tuberculosis Case Counts through 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-7, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0065276
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065276
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065276&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0065276?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jia, Zhong-Wei & Tang, Gong-You & Jin, Zhen & Dye, Christopher & Vlas, Sake J. & Li, Xiao-Wen & Feng, Dan & Fang, Li-Qun & Zhao, Wen-Juan & Cao, Wu-Chun, 2008. "Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 437-448.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arenas, Abraham J. & González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva Micó, Rafael-J., 2010. "Modeling toxoplasmosis spread in cat populations under vaccination," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 227-237.
    2. Li, Yong & Liu, Xianning & Yuan, Yiyi & Li, Jiang & Wang, Lianwen, 2022. "Global analysis of tuberculosis dynamical model and optimal control strategies based on case data in the United States," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 422(C).
    3. Szu-Chieh Chen & Tzu-Yun Wang & Hsin-Chieh Tsai & Chi-Yun Chen & Tien-Hsuan Lu & Yi-Jun Lin & Shu-Han You & Ying-Fei Yang & Chung-Min Liao, 2022. "Demographic Control Measure Implications of Tuberculosis Infection for Migrant Workers across Taiwan Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Yu Zhao & Mingtao Li & Sanling Yuan, 2017. "Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0065276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.