IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v14y2017i10p1192-d114269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Zhao

    (School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750004, Ningxia, China
    School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Ningxia Normal University, Guyuan 756000, Ningxia, China)

  • Mingtao Li

    (School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
    Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China)

  • Sanling Yuan

    (College of Science, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005–2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Then, we evaluated the parameters by the Least Square method and simulated the model and it had good alignment with the reported infected TB data in Mainland China. Furthermore, we estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 of 1.7858, with an obtained 95% confidence interval for R 0 of (1.7752, 1.7963) by Latin hypercube sampling, and we completed a sensitivity analysis of R 0 in terms of some parameters. Our study demonstrates that diverse age groups have different effects on TB. Two effective measures were found that would help reach the goals of theWorld Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy: an increase in the recovery rate and the reduction in the infectious rate of the senior age group.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Zhao & Mingtao Li & Sanling Yuan, 2017. "Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:10:p:1192-:d:114269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/10/1192/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/14/10/1192/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jia, Zhong-Wei & Tang, Gong-You & Jin, Zhen & Dye, Christopher & Vlas, Sake J. & Li, Xiao-Wen & Feng, Dan & Fang, Li-Qun & Zhao, Wen-Juan & Cao, Wu-Chun, 2008. "Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 437-448.
    2. Smith, James P. & Strauss, John & Zhao, Yaohui, 2014. "Healthy aging in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 37-43.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu Hu & Yaping Chen & Hui Liang & Ying Wang, 2018. "An Overview of Coverage of BCG Vaccination and Its Determinants Based on Data from the Coverage Survey in Zhejiang Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-12, June.
    2. Pan Tang & Shiwen Qian & Lei Shi & Longxing Qi & Tingting Li, 2023. "The Influence of Migration to Regions with Different Coverages of Health Education on Schistosomiasis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-27, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hamid R. Oskorouchi & Alfonso Sousa-Poza & David E. Bloom, 2020. "The Long-Term Cognitive and Schooling Effects of Childhood Vaccinations in China," NBER Working Papers 27217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Khan, Hasib & Alam, Khurshaid & Gulzar, Haseena & Etemad, Sina & Rezapour, Shahram, 2022. "A case study of fractal-fractional tuberculosis model in China: Existence and stability theories along with numerical simulations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 455-473.
    3. Mitra, Sophie & Gao, Qin & Chen, Wei & Zhang, Yalu, 2020. "Health, work, and income among middle-aged and older adults: A panel analysis for China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    4. Mi, Hong & Fan, Xiaodong & Lu, Bei & Cai, Liming & Piggott, John, 2020. "Preparing for population ageing: Estimating the cost of formal aged care in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    5. Nie, Peng & Wang, Lu & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2020. "Peer Effects and Fertility Preferences in China: Evidence from the China Labor-Force Dynamics Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 13448, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Xuefeng Li & Han Yang & Jin Jia, 2022. "Impact of energy poverty on cognitive and mental health among middle-aged and older adults in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Hare, Denise, 2016. "What accounts for the decline in labor force participation among married women in urban China, 1991–2011?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-266.
    8. Arenas, Abraham J. & González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva Micó, Rafael-J., 2010. "Modeling toxoplasmosis spread in cat populations under vaccination," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 227-237.
    9. Shu, Lei, 2017. "Essays on retirement income provision," Other publications TiSEM e5dd8c4e-03bf-4ec9-9651-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Li, Yong & Liu, Xianning & Yuan, Yiyi & Li, Jiang & Wang, Lianwen, 2022. "Global analysis of tuberculosis dynamical model and optimal control strategies based on case data in the United States," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 422(C).
    11. Nie, Peng & Ding, Lanlin & Jones, Andrew M., 2020. "Inequality of Opportunity in Bodyweight among Middle-Aged and Older Chinese: A Distributional Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 13421, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Han Gao & Ulrika Söderhamn & Christina Cliffordson & Lina Guo & Qiyun Guo & Kun Liu, 2017. "Reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the Self‐care Ability Scale for the Elderly," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(23-24), pages 4489-4497, December.
    13. Szu-Chieh Chen & Tzu-Yun Wang & Hsin-Chieh Tsai & Chi-Yun Chen & Tien-Hsuan Lu & Yi-Jun Lin & Shu-Han You & Ying-Fei Yang & Chung-Min Liao, 2022. "Demographic Control Measure Implications of Tuberculosis Infection for Migrant Workers across Taiwan Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-16, August.
    14. Shu, Lei, 2018. "The effect of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance program on the retirement and labor supply decision in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 135-150.
    15. Rachel S Y e l k Woodruff & Carla A Winston & Roque Miramontes, 2013. "Predicting U.S. Tuberculosis Case Counts through 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-7, June.
    16. Connelly, Rachel & Maurer-Fazio, Margaret, 2016. "Left behind, at-risk, and vulnerable elders in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 140-153.
    17. Connelly, Rachel & Maurer-Fazio, Margaret, 2015. "Left Behind, At Risk, and Vulnerable Elders in Rural China: What the RUMIC Data Reveal about the Extent, Causes, and Consequences of Being Left Behind," IZA Discussion Papers 9213, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Wang, Qiong & Mukhopadhaya, Pundarik & Ye, Jingyi, 2020. "An evaluation of the changes in wellbeing in China – 2005 to 2015: An exploratory study," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:10:p:1192-:d:114269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.