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The Harrod Trade Multiplier And The Importance Of Export-Led Growth

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  • A. P. THIRLWALL

Abstract

The paper attempts to revive the idea that the level and growth of output of countries in a balance of payments constrained framework are determined by the workings of the foreign trade multiplier; an idea first put forward by Harrod in 1933. Evidence is presented for a range of developed and developing countries, which suggests that the Harrod trade multiplier works in developed countries, but much more loosely in developing countries where capital flows and terms of trade changes are more important in determining growth performance. The relevance of the model for explaining regional growth, and the growth of industry in the early stages of development, is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • A. P. Thirlwall, 1982. "The Harrod Trade Multiplier And The Importance Of Export-Led Growth," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:pje:journl:article1982sumv
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    Cited by:

    1. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    2. Soro, Bruno, 2012. "Harrod, Kaldor, and the Idea of the "Foreign Trade Multiplier” - Harrod, Kaldor e l’idea dell’esistenza di un “moltiplicatore del commercio estero”," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 65(1), pages 173-187.
    3. Penelope Pacheco-Lopez & A.P. Thirlwall, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Latin America," Studies in Economics 0505, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Elias Soukiazis & Pedre André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "The Effects of Internal and External Imbalances on Italy´s Economic Growth. A Balance of Payments Approach with Relative Prices No Neutral," GEMF Working Papers 2013-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    5. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2013. "Growth rates constrained by internal and external imbalances and the role of relative prices: empirical evidence from Portugal," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 275-298.
    6. Micaela Antunes & Elias Soukiazis, 2009. "How well the balance-of- payments constraint approach explains the Portuguese growth performance: empirical evidence for the 1965-2008 period," GEMF Working Papers 2009-13, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    7. Elias Soukiazis & Eva Muchova, 2012. "Slovak economic growth and the consistency of the balance-of-payments constraint approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-16, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    8. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Causes of the Decline of Economic Growth in Italy and the Responsibility of EURO: A Balance-of-Payments Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    9. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to the goods and labour markets," MERIT Working Papers 2022-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. H. Sonmez Atesoglu & Donald Dutkowsky, 1997. "On the dynamics of balance of payments constrained growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1343-1351.
    11. Emanuele Brancati & Raffaele Brancati & Dario Guarascio & Andrea Maresca & Manuel Romagnoli & Antonello Zanfei, 2018. "Firm-level Drivers of Export Performance and External Competitiveness in Italy," European Economy - Discussion Papers 087, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Growth Rates Constrained by Internal and External Imbalances: A Demand-Orientated Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 5, pages 144-167, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    14. A. P. Thirlwall, 2014. "Kaldor's 1970 Regional Growth Model Revisited," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 341-347, September.
    15. Aglietta, Michel & Boyer Robert, 1982. "Poles de compétitivité, stratégie industrielle et politique macroéconomique," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8223, CEPREMAP.
    16. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro André Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2015. "Causes of the decline of economic growth in Italy with special reference to the post-euro period: a balance-of-payments approach," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 491—516-4, October.

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