IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v9y2022i1d10.1057_s41599-022-01257-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of herd immunity thresholds on willingness to vaccinate

Author

Listed:
  • Per A. Andersson

    (Linkoping university)

  • Gustav Tinghög

    (Linkoping university
    Linkoping university)

  • Daniel Västfjäll

    (Linkoping university
    Decision Research)

Abstract

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, media and policymakers openly speculated about the number of immune citizens needed to reach a herd immunity threshold. What are the effects of such numerical goals on the willingness to vaccinate? In a large representative sample (N = 1540) of unvaccinated Swedish citizens, we find that giving a low (60%) compared to a high (90%) threshold has direct effects on beliefs about reaching herd immunity and beliefs about how many others that will get vaccinated. Presenting the high threshold makes people believe that herd immunity is harder to reach (on average about half a step on a seven-point scale), compared to the low threshold. Yet at the same time, people also believe that a higher number of the population will get vaccinated (on average about 3.3% more of the population). Since these beliefs affect willingness to vaccinate in opposite directions, some individuals are encouraged and others discouraged depending on the threshold presented. Specifically, in mediation analysis, the high threshold indirectly increases vaccination willingness through the belief that many others will get vaccinated (B = 0.027, p = 0.003). At the same time, the high threshold also decreases vaccination willingness through the belief that the threshold goal is less attainable (B = −0.053, p

Suggested Citation

  • Per A. Andersson & Gustav Tinghög & Daniel Västfjäll, 2022. "The effect of herd immunity thresholds on willingness to vaccinate," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:9:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-022-01257-7
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-022-01257-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-022-01257-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-022-01257-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cornelia Betsch & Robert Böhm & Lars Korn & Cindy Holtmann, 2017. "On the benefits of explaining herd immunity in vaccine advocacy," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(3), pages 1-6, March.
    2. Sahil Loomba & Alexandre Figueiredo & Simon J. Piatek & Kristen Graaf & Heidi J. Larson, 2021. "Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 337-348, March.
    3. Christie Aschwanden, 2021. "Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible," Nature, Nature, vol. 591(7851), pages 520-522, March.
    4. Jeffrey T. Vietri & Meng Li & Alison P. Galvani & Gretchen B. Chapman, 2012. "Vaccinating to Help Ourselves and Others," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(3), pages 447-458, May.
    5. Cornelia Betsch & Robert Böhm, 2018. "Moral values do not affect prosocial vaccination," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 881-882, December.
    6. Sahil Loomba & Alexandre Figueiredo & Simon J. Piatek & Kristen Graaf & Heidi J. Larson, 2021. "Author Correction: Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 960-960, July.
    7. Sahil Loomba & Alexandre Figueiredo & Simon J. Piatek & Kristen Graaf & Heidi J. Larson, 2021. "Author Correction: Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on vaccination intent in the UK and USA," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 407-407, March.
    8. Hengchen Dai & Silvia Saccardo & Maria A. Han & Lily Roh & Naveen Raja & Sitaram Vangala & Hardikkumar Modi & Shital Pandya & Michael Sloyan & Daniel M. Croymans, 2021. "Behavioural nudges increase COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature, Nature, vol. 597(7876), pages 404-409, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bussolo,Maurizio & Sarma,Nayantara & Torre,Ivan, 2022. "Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Vaccine Acceptance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10106, The World Bank.
    2. Bruno Arpino & Valeria Bordone & Giorgio Di Gessa, 2022. "Close kin influence COVID-19 precautionary behaviors and vaccine acceptance of older individuals," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2022_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2021. "When Reality Bites: Local Deaths and Vaccine Take-Up," GLO Discussion Paper Series 999, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Kejriwal, Saransh & Sheth, Sarjan & Silpa, P.S. & Sarkar, Sumit & Guha, Apratim, 2022. "Attaining herd immunity to a new infectious disease through multi-stage policies incentivising voluntary vaccination," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Ahmad Naoras Bitar & Mohammed Zawiah & Fahmi Y Al-Ashwal & Mohammed Kubas & Ramzi Mukred Saeed & Rami Abduljabbar & Ammar Ali Saleh Jaber & Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman & Amer Hayat Khan, 2021. "Misinformation, perceptions towards COVID-19 and willingness to be vaccinated: A population-based survey in Yemen," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Hess, Stephane & Lancsar, Emily & Mariel, Petr & Meyerhoff, Jürgen & Song, Fangqing & van den Broek-Altenburg, Eline & Alaba, Olufunke A. & Amaris, Gloria & Arellana, Julián & Basso, Leonardo J. & Ben, 2022. "The path towards herd immunity: Predicting COVID-19 vaccination uptake through results from a stated choice study across six continents," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    7. Peter Romero & Eisaku Daniel Tanaka & Yuki Mikiya & Shinya Yoshino & Atsushi Oshio & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2023. "Vaccine Uptake - Geographic Psychology or the Information Field?," Working Papers e191, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    8. Lonneke M. Poort & Jac. A. A. Swart & Ruth Mampuys & Arend J. Waarlo & Paul C. Struik & Lucien Hanssen, 2022. "Restore politics in societal debates on new genomic techniques," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(4), pages 1207-1216, December.
    9. Vilmantė Pakalniškienė & Antanas Kairys & Vytautas Jurkuvėnas & Vita Mikuličiūtė & Viktorija Ivleva, 2022. "Could Belief in Fake News Predict Vaccination Behavior in the Elderly?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Maureen Ayikoru, & Cole, Jennifer & Dodds, Klaus & Atcero, Milburga & Bada, Joseph K. & Petrikova, Ivica & Worodria, William, 2023. "Addressing vaccine concerns through the spectrum of vaccine acceptance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    11. Mulder, Laetitia B. & Lokate, Mariëtte, 2022. "The effect of moral appeals on influenza vaccination uptake and support for a vaccination mandate among health care workers," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    12. Jiela Marie H. Taneza & Roel Jr. D. Apas, 2023. "Ordeals in Combating COVID-19 Pandemic and Acceptability of COVID-19 Vaccine Among Frontliners in Digos City, Davao del Sur," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(5), pages 1139-1164, May.
    13. Motta, Matt & Motta, Gabriella & Stecula, Dominik, 2023. "Sick as a Dog? The Prevalence, Politicization, and Health Policy Consequences of Canine Vaccine Hesitancy (CVH)," SocArXiv qmbkv, Center for Open Science.
    14. Gabriele Beccari & Matilde Giaccherini & Joanna Kopinska & Gabriele Rovigatti, 2023. "Refueling a Quiet Fire: Old Truthers and New Discontent in the Wake of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 10803, CESifo.
    15. Hoy,Christopher Alexander & Rajee Kanagavel & Cameron,Corey Morales, 2022. "Intra-Household Dynamics and Attitudes toward Vaccines : Experimental and Survey Evidencefrom Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10136, The World Bank.
    16. Giulio Grossi, 2023. "The policy is always greener: impact heterogeneity of Covid-19 vaccination lotteries in the US," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(4), pages 1351-1375, October.
    17. Falco, Paolo & Zaccagni, Sarah, 2020. "Promoting social distancing in a pandemic: Beyond the good intentions," OSF Preprints a2nys, Center for Open Science.
    18. Reddinger, J. Lucas & Charness, Gary & Levine, David, 2022. "Prosocial motivation for vaccination," SocArXiv emj6v, Center for Open Science.
    19. Angerer, Silvia & Glätzle-Rützler, Daniela & Lergetporer, Philipp & Rittmannsberger, Thomas, 2023. "How does the vaccine approval procedure affect COVID-19 vaccination intentions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    20. Juliane Wiese & Nattavudh Powdthavee, 2023. "How effective are covid-19 vaccine health messages in reducing vaccine skepticism? Heterogeneity in messages effectiveness by just world beliefs," Papers 2301.03303, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:9:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-022-01257-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.