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The Use of Markov models as an aid to the evaluation, planning and benchmarking of Doctoral Programs

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  • M G Nicholls

    (RMIT University)

Abstract

In this paper, an absorbing finite Markov chain model is developed to facilitate planning in a DBA Program in a Graduate School in Australia. The short- and long-term forecasting facilities offered by the model are used to determine the expected numbers in the DBA Program. The Markov model is also used to determine other critical attributes of the Program, such as expected success rate for candidates, expected first passage times prior to absorption per se and also prior to withdrawal and graduation specifically, all facilitating a status quo analysis. The absorbing state-specific first passage times are arrived at using a relatively simplified approach. This paper also illustrates how the model can be used to competitively benchmark these status quo attributes. The expected number of doctoral candidates in each ‘state’ within the Program (in both the short- and long-term contexts) can be used to estimate, among a range of important model attributes, the expected revenue stream and expected supervisor load in the DBA Program. From this information changes can be made to the Program where required.

Suggested Citation

  • M G Nicholls, 2009. "The Use of Markov models as an aid to the evaluation, planning and benchmarking of Doctoral Programs," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(9), pages 1183-1190, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:9:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602639
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen Ling & Pen Guozhong, 1987. "A Predictive Method of Teacher's Structure in China's University (1985--2000)," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 739-749, June.
    2. Becker, William E. & Williams, Arlington W., 1986. "Assessing personnel practices in higher education: A case study in the hiring of females," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-272, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnes, Jill, 2015. "Operational Research in education," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 683-696.
    2. Aaron Luntala Nsakanda & Moustapha Diaby & Yuheng Cao, 2011. "An aggregate inventory-based model for predicting redemption and liability in loyalty reward programs industry," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 707-719, November.
    3. Virtue Ekhosuehi & Wilfred A. Iguodala & Augustine A. Osagiede, 2016. "Financing university education in Nigeria. A proposal for infrastructure replenishment in universities," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 26(4), pages 33-47.

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