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Modeling the IMF's Statistical Discrepancy in the Global Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Jaime Marquez

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Lisa Workman

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and generating the aggregate discrepancy's conditional expectation. The second step is to compare this model-based forecast with the discrepancy embodied in countries' current-account forecasts. If the gap in discrepancies is below a critical value, then the discrepancy embodied in the countries' current account forecasts is not large. Otherwise, the discrepancy is large and calls for a careful reexamination of the associated current account forecasts. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Marquez & Lisa Workman, 2001. "Modeling the IMF's Statistical Discrepancy in the Global Current Account," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:48:y:2002:i:3:p:4
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    Cited by:

    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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