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Fiscal Adjustment in Pakistan: Some Simulation Results

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  • Nadeem U. Haque

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Peter J. Montiel

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Pakistan has experienced high fiscal deficits for over two decades. The accumulation of debt over this period implies that a substantial adjustment will be required to attain a sustainable fiscal position over the medium term. By simulating an estimated macroeconomic model for Pakistan, this paper compares the likely macroeconomic consequences of achieving fiscal adjustment alternatively through reductions in public consumption or public investment or through increasing tax receipts. The most favorable medium-term growth and inflation outcomes are associated with reduced public consumption; the least favorable correspond to reduced public investment. Revenue increases occupy an intermediate position.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.

Volume (Year): 40 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 471-480

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:40:y:1993:i:2:p:471-480

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Cited by:
  1. Hyder, Kalim & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2003. "Why Private Investment In Pakistan Has Collapsed And How It Can Be Restored," MPRA Paper 16251, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2004.
  2. Kalim Hyder, 2001. "Crowding-out Hypothesis in a Vector Error Correction Framework: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 633-650.
  3. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, EconWPA.

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