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The Changing Relationship Between Commodity Prices and Equity Prices in Commodity Exporting Countries

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  • Barbara Rossi

Abstract

The paper explores the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. It documents that a country's equity market value has significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity price index for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The results are robust to using several control variables as well as firm-level equity data. Finally, the results indicate that exchange rates are a better predictor of commodity prices than equity markets, especially at very short horizons.

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  • Barbara Rossi, 2012. "The Changing Relationship Between Commodity Prices and Equity Prices in Commodity Exporting Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 533-569, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:60:y:2012:i:4:p:533-569
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    Cited by:

    1. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolás, 2021. "Forecasting aluminum prices with commodity currencies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2016. "Commodity prices and related equity prices," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 949-967, August.
    3. Omura, Akihiro & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard, 2016. "Steel scrap and equity market in Japan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 115-124.
    4. Pablo Pincheira-Brown & Nicolás Hardy & Cristobal Henrriquez & Ignacio Tapia & Andrea Bentancor, 2023. "Forecasting Base Metal Prices with an International Stock Index," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 73(3), pages 277-302, October.
    5. Rose Mary K. Abraham, 2022. "Financialisation of Commodity Markets: Evidence from India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 106-131, February.
    6. Sohag, Kazi & Shams, S.M. Riad & Gainetdinova, Anna & Nappo, Fabio, 2023. "Frequency connectedness and cross-quantile dependence among medicare, medicine prices and health-tech equity," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Sjo, Bo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Commodities price cycles and their interdependence with equity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Bharat Kumar Meher & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Santosh Kumar & Abhishek Kumar Gupta, 2022. "Modelling Market Indices, Commodity Market Prices and Stock Prices of Energy Sector using VAR with Variance Decomposition Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 122-130, July.
    9. Ali Yunes Merza Amanalla Mohammed, 2018. "International Trade and its Impact on CO2 Emission: Empirical Study of Bahrain," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 318-333, February.
    10. Lajis, Siti & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Is the islamic equity market independent of the influence of primary commodities ? Malaysian evidence," MPRA Paper 104766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Rangga Handika & Rangga Handika & Sigit Triandaru, 2016. "Is the Best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity(p,q) Value-at-risk Estimate also the Best in Reality? An Evidence from Australian Interconnected Power Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 814-821.
    12. Rangga Handika & Mahjus Ekananda, 2019. "Benefits and Consequences of Diversification: Evidence from Financialzed Commodity Portfolios," Asian Business Research Journal, Sophia, vol. 4(1), pages 17-28.
    13. Rangga Handika & Sania Ashraf, 2018. "Financialized Commodities and Stock Indices Volatilities," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 153-164.

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