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Optimal Life Cycle Portfolio Choice with Housing Market Cycles

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  • Marcel Fischer
  • Michael Z. Stamos

Abstract

In recent decades U.S. households have experienced residential house prices moving persistently, that is, returns being positively serially correlated. We set up a realistically calibrated life cycle model with slow-moving time variation in expected housing returns, showing that not only age, labor income, and pre-existing housing wealth but also the state of the housing market significantly affect household decisions. Consistently with the data, the model predicts that in good states of housing market cycles (1) homeownership rates increase, (2) households buying homes invest a larger share of their net worth in their home, and (3) these households lever up more. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fischer & Michael Z. Stamos, 2013. "Optimal Life Cycle Portfolio Choice with Housing Market Cycles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(9), pages 2311-2352.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:26:y:2013:i:9:p:2311-2352
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hht010
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    Cited by:

    1. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Weiss, Farina, 2019. "Predictors and portfolios over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-27.
    2. Yang, Xintong & Gan, Li, 2020. "Bequest motive, household portfolio choice, and wealth inequality in urban China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    5. Stefano Corradin & Carles Vergara-Alert & Jose Fillat, 2019. "Household Choices with House Value Misperception," 2019 Meeting Papers 1247, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Alexandra Spicer & Olena Stavrunova & Susan Thorp, 2016. "How Portfolios Evolve after Retirement: Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 241-267, June.
    7. Marcel Fischer & Natalia Khorunzhina, 2019. "Housing Decision With Divorce Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1263-1290, August.
    8. Holger Kraft & Claus Munk & Sebastian Wagner, 2018. "Housing Habits and Their Implications for Life-Cycle Consumption and Investment [The evolution of homeownership rates in selected OECD countries: demographic and public policy influences]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(5), pages 1737-1762.
    9. Cao, Yujin & Chen, Jidong & Zhang, Qinghua, 2018. "Housing investment in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 212-247.
    10. Ariadna Jou & Nuria Mas & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2023. "Housing Wealth, Health and Deaths of Despair," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 569-602, April.
    11. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Wagner, Sebastian, 2015. "Housing habits and their implications for life-cycle consumption and investment," SAFE Working Paper Series 85, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2015.
    12. Fischer, Marcel & Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2217-2240.
    13. Stefano Corradin & José Fillat & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2017. "Portfolio choice with house value misperception," Working Papers 17-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Munk, Claus, 2020. "A mean-variance benchmark for household portfolios over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Weiss, Farina, 2017. "Predictors and portfolios over the life cycle: Skill vs. luck," SAFE Working Paper Series 139, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.

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