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Factor-Loading Uncertainty and Expected Returns

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  • Christopher S. Armstrong
  • Snehal Banerjee
  • Carlos Corona

Abstract

Firm-specific information can affect expected returns if it affects investor uncertainty about risk-factor loadings. We show that a stock's expected return is decreasing in factor-loading uncertainty, controlling for the average level of its factor loading. When loadings are persistent, learning by investors can induce time-series variation in price-dividend ratios, expected returns, and idiosyncratic volatility, even when the aggregate risk-premium is constant and fundamental shocks are homoscedastic. Consistent with our predictions, we estimate that average annual returns of a firm with the median level of factor-loading uncertainty are 400 to 525 basis points lower than a comparable firm without factor-loading uncertainty. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher S. Armstrong & Snehal Banerjee & Carlos Corona, 2013. "Factor-Loading Uncertainty and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 158-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:26:y:2013:i:1:p:158-207
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhs102
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Schneemeier, 2019. "Shock Propagation Through Cross-Learning in Opaque Networks," 2019 Meeting Papers 329, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Avdis, Efstathios, 2016. "Information tradeoffs in dynamic financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 568-584.
    3. Mirko S. Heinle & Kevin C. Smith, 2017. "A theory of risk disclosure," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1459-1491, December.
    4. Salotti, Simone & Trecroci, Carmine, 2014. "Multifactor risk loadings and abnormal returns under uncertainty and learning," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 393-404.
    5. Ammann, Manuel & Fischer, Sebastian & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Factor exposure variation and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 20-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Xuejing Xing & Shan Yan, 2019. "Accounting information quality and systematic risk," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 85-103, January.
    7. Kevin C. Smith & Eric C. So, 2022. "Measuring Risk Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 375-426, May.
    8. Barahona, Ricardo & Driessen, Joost & Frehen, Rik, 2021. "Can unpredictable risk exposure be priced?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 522-544.
    9. Beyer, Anne & Smith, Kevin C., 2021. "Learning about risk-factor exposures from earnings: Implications for asset pricing and manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1).
    10. Jeremy Bertomeu & Edwige Cheynel, 2016. "Disclosure and the Cost of Capital: A Survey of the Theoretical Literature," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(2), pages 221-258, June.
    11. Borup, Daniel, 2019. "Asset pricing model uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 166-189.
    12. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & de Oliveira Ferrazoli Ribeiro, Fabio & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2017. "Beta forecasting at long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 936-957.
    13. Chincarini, Ludwig B. & Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2020. "Beta and firm age," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 50-74.
    14. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
    15. Riccardo Borghi & Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Mikkelsen & Giovanni Urga, 2018. "The dynamics of factor loadings in the cross-section of returns," CREATES Research Papers 2018-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Beta uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Manuel Ammann & Sebastian Fischer & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Risk Factor Exposure Variation and Mutual Fund Performance," Working Papers on Finance 1817, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Nov 2018.
    18. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    19. Baig, Ahmed & DeLisle, R. Jared & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2022. "Index mutual fund ownership and financial reporting quality," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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