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An Aggregate Model of Technical Change

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  • John Conlisk

Abstract

A simple aggregate growth model is presented in which technology is described by a probability distribution from which new plants are drawn. Especially good draws are viewed as technological innovations that shift the mean of the following period's plant distribution function. The resulting technical change is endogenous, random, and cumulative. In contrast to conventional growth models, the model's growth path displays nonstationary drift rather than deterministic trend, and the long-run per capita growth rate has positive rather than zero sensitivity to the model's saving parameter.

Suggested Citation

  • John Conlisk, 1989. "An Aggregate Model of Technical Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 787-821.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:104:y:1989:i:4:p:787-821.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/2937868
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    1. Petrohilos-Andrianos, Yannis & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2017. "Resource harvesting regulation and enforcement: An evolutionary approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 236-253.
    2. Vaitsos, Constantine V., 2003. "Growth Theories Revisited: Enduring Questions with Changing Answers," UNU-INTECH Discussion Paper Series 2003-09, United Nations University - INTECH.
    3. Jeroen Bergh, 2007. "Evolutionary thinking in environmental economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 521-549, October.
    4. G. Silverberg & B. Verspagen, 1995. "Evolutionary Theorizing on Economic Growth," Working Papers wp95078, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. Jan Fagerberg, 2003. "Schumpeter and the revival of evolutionary economics: an appraisal of the literature," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 125-159, April.
    6. Jun, Bogang & Kim, Tai-Yoo, 2015. "A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework: The expanded reproduction system," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    7. Ricardo Lagos, 2006. "A Model of TFP," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 983-1007.
    8. Bacila Nicolae, 2012. "The Implications Of State Aid To R&D On Economic Development In The European Union," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 96-101, July.
    9. Schneider, Johannes & Ziesemer, Thomas, 1994. "What's New and What's Old in New Growth Theory: Endogenous Technology, Microfoundation, and Growth Rate Predictions," MPRA Paper 56132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Evolutionary And New Growth Theories. Are They Converging?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 585-627, July.
    11. Karolina Safarzyńska & Jeroen Bergh, 2010. "Evolutionary models in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 329-373, June.
    12. BACILA Nicolae, 2012. "State Aid Policy Between Competition And Economic Growth: The Impact Of State Aid To R&D On Gdp In The Eu Member States," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 86-94.
    13. Heinrich, Torsten, 2015. "Growth Cycles, Network Effects, and Intersectoral Dependence: An Agent-Based Model and Simulation Analysis," MPRA Paper 79575, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jun 2017.
    14. Theo S Eicher & Klaas vant Veld, 2000. "Search in Research: An Evolutionary Approach to Technical Change and Growth"," Working Papers 0005, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    15. Heinrich, Torsten, 2016. "The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 75797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Delano S Villanueva & Roberto S Mariano & Diwa C Guinigundo & Abbas Mirakhor, 2023. "Finance and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Growth Theory and Practice, chapter 5, pages 96-118, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Marian Pompiliu Cristescu & Raluca Andreea Nerișanu, 2021. "Sustainable Development with Schumpeter Extended Endogenous Type of Innovation and Statistics in European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-22, March.
    18. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    19. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2004. "Evolutionary Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth, Environmental Quality and Resource Scarcity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-048/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Letenyei, László, 2002. "Helyhez kötött kapcsolatok. Egy társadalmi kapcsolathálókon alapuló magyarázat a földrajzi munkamegosztás kialakulására [Ties of locality. An explanation of the development of the geographical divi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 875-888.
    21. Fulvio Castellacci, 2011. "Theoretical Models of Heterogeneity, Growth and Competitiveness: Insights from the Mainstream and Evolutionary Economics Paradigms," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume II, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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