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Trade finance matters: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

Author

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  • Banu Demir
  • Beata Javorcik

Abstract

This study documents a substantial decline in the exports of major trading nations taking place in March 2020. Accounting for product-specific seasonality and annual trends, the data suggest a drop by 38 per cent in France, about a quarter in Turkey and Germany, and 12 per cent in the US, relative to their historical averages. Detailed export data from Turkey, disaggregated by financing terms, show another striking pattern. Flows using bank intermediation which eliminates or reduces the risk of non-payment or non-arrival of prepaid goods, such as letters of credit or documentary collection, appear to have been much more resilient to the current downturn relative to flows using other financing terms. These findings suggest that access to trade finance is vital during times of heightened uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik, 2020. "Trade finance matters: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 397-408.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:36:y:2020:i:supplement_1:p:s397-s408.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/graa034
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    Cited by:

    1. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yousaf, Imran & Karim, Sitara & Yarovaya, Larisa & Ali, Shoaib, 2023. "Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Ping Ruan & Yung-Fu Huang & Ming-Wei Weng, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on Supply Chains: A Hybrid Trade Credit Policy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Matthieu Crozet & Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik, 2022. "International Trade and Letters of Credit: A Double-Edged Sword in Times of Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 185-211, June.
    4. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 111433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2021.
    5. Maria Bas & Ana Margarida Fernandes & Caroline Paunov, 2022. "How Resilient Was Trade to Covid-19?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9652, CESifo.
    6. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    7. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 containment measures on trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 766-778.
    8. Cristina Constantinescu & Ana Margarida Fernandes & Arti Grover & Stavros Poupakis & Santiago Reyes, 2022. "Globally Engaged Firms in the Covid-19 Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9711, CESifo.
    9. Borchert, Lea & de Haas, Ralph & Kirschenmann, Karolin & Schultz, Alison, 2023. "Broken relationships: De-risking by correspondent banks and international trade," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-064, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Jagriti Srivastava & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," Working papers 473, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    11. Marc Auboin & Eddy Bekkers & Dario De Quarti, 2023. "A Novel Framework to Evaluate Changes in Access to and Costs of Trade Finance," CESifo Working Paper Series 10445, CESifo.
    12. Amin,Mohammad & Viganola,Domenico, 2021. "Does Better Access to Finance Help Firms Deal with the COVID-19 Pandemic ? Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9697, The World Bank.
    13. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 108951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cuñat, Alejandro & Zymek, Robert, 2022. "The (structural) gravity of epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. Taeil Kim & Sunghwa Park & Hanna Kim & Janghan Kwon, 2023. "Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on International Trade: Cases of Major Countries Using the SUR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Auboin, Marc & Bekkers, Eddy & De Quarti, Dario, 2023. "A novel framework to evaluate changes in access to and costs of trade finance," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    17. Tomasz Gigol & Katarzyna Kreczmanska-Gigol & Renata Pajewska-Kwasny, 2021. "Socially Responsible Leadership’s Impact on Stakeholder Management, Staff Job Satisfaction and Work Engagement," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 4), pages 775-805.
    18. Kazancoglu, Yigit & Ekinci, Esra & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Sezer, Muruvvet Deniz & Ozbiltekin-Pala, Melisa, 2023. "Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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