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The Productivity Slowdown and the Savings Shortfall: A Challenge to the Permanent Income Hypothesis

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  • Viard, Alan D

Abstract

The author argues that the savings decline following the post-1973 productivity slowdown discredits the permanent income hypothesis. The permanent income hypothesis predicts that a reduction in expected future income growth should cause an increase in saving. The author shows that economic agents revised downward their expectations of future growth after 1973 but that the saving rate declined. Other economic events during this period cannot explain this discrepancy. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Viard, Alan D, 1993. "The Productivity Slowdown and the Savings Shortfall: A Challenge to the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 549-563, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:31:y:1993:i:4:p:549-63
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    Cited by:

    1. Kapteyn, Arie & Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2005. "Explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts: Productivity growth and Social Security," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1361-1391, July.
    2. Mario Seccareccia, 2005. "Growing Household Indebtedness and the Plummeting Saving Rate in Canada: An Explanatory Note," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 16(1), pages 133-151, July.
    3. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.

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