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The Roles of Ideology, Institutions, Politics, and Economic Knowledge in Forecasting Macroeconomic Developments: Lessons from the Crisis -super-1

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  • Alex Cukierman

Abstract

This article discusses the importance of ideology, institutions, politics, and economic knowledge for forecasting economic policies and their impact on macroeconomic developments. Following a general discussion of those factors, the article illustrates their forecasting usefulness by drawing on experiences from the global financial crisis. Specific issues include the roles of those factors in the pre-crisis bubble buildup, in shaping aggregate policy responses in the USA and Europe and in shaping international coordination regarding long-term regulatory reform and preservation of free trade. A final illustration includes the role of policymaking institutions in guiding public expectations. (JEL codes: E6, E5, H, P5) Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Cukierman, 2010. "The Roles of Ideology, Institutions, Politics, and Economic Knowledge in Forecasting Macroeconomic Developments: Lessons from the Crisis -super-1," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(4), pages 575-595, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:56:y:2010:i:4:p:575-595
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifq008
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    Cited by:

    1. Bright Senanu & Bedman Narteh, 2023. "Banking sector reforms and customer switching intentions: evidence from the Ghanaian banking industry," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(1), pages 15-29, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • P5 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

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