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The Banking Crisis as Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

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  • Patrick Minford

Abstract

Crises are triggered by the inherent uncertainty of the capitalist system. We represent this uncertainty in an open economy real business cycle model of the UK by including non-stationary productivity shocks. A random sequence of good or bad shocks will accumulate, producing euphorias and crises; banking crises will be superimposed when banks have been sucked in by a euphoria. Existing macro models can also help to understand the macro effects of a banking crisis and to calibrate the necessary policy responses, even if they cannot explain the crisis shock itself; we illustrate this from DSGE models of the EU and the US. In designing new regulative systems we need to avoid throwing the capitalist baby out with the risky bathwater. (JEL codes: E32, E37, E44, E58) Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Minford, 2010. "The Banking Crisis as Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(4), pages 554-574, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:56:y:2010:i:4:p:554-574
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifq016
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    Cited by:

    1. Arne Heise, 2014. "The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 70-93, July.
    2. Kent Matthews, 2013. "No Plan B: But is There a ‘Third Way'?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 220-231, June.
    3. Arne Heise, 2018. "Reclaiming the University: transforming economics as a discipline," The Journal of Philosophical Economics, Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 37-66, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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