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Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Discovering New Species

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  • Antonio Lijoi
  • Ramsés H. Mena
  • Igor Prünster

Abstract

We consider the problem of evaluating the probability of discovering a certain number of new species in a new sample of population units, conditional on the number of species recorded in a basic sample. We use a Bayesian nonparametric approach. The different species proportions are assumed to be random and the observations from the population exchangeable. We provide a Bayesian estimator, under quadratic loss, for the probability of discovering new species which can be compared with well-known frequentist estimators. The results we obtain are illustrated through a numerical example and an application to a genomic dataset concerning the discovery of new genes by sequencing additional single-read sequences of cdna fragments. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Lijoi & Ramsés H. Mena & Igor Prünster, 2007. "Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Discovering New Species," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 94(4), pages 769-786.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:94:y:2007:i:4:p:769-786
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/biomet/asm061
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster, 2012. "A new estimator of the discovery probability," DEM Working Papers Series 007, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prunster, 2009. "Models beyond the Dirichlet process," Quaderni di Dipartimento 103, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    3. Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prünster, 2012. "On the stick–breaking representation of normalized inverse Gaussian priors," DEM Working Papers Series 008, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Antonio Lijoi & Ramsés H. Mena & Igor Prünster, 2007. "A Bayesian Nonparametric Method for Prediction in EST Analysis," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 16-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    5. Navarrete, Carlos A. & Quintana, Fernando A., 2011. "Similarity analysis in Bayesian random partition models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 97-109, January.
    6. Pierpaolo De Blasi & Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Ramsés H. Mena & Igor Prünster & Mattteo Ruggiero, 2013. "Are Gibbs-type priors the most natural generalization of the Dirichlet process?," DEM Working Papers Series 054, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Stefano Favaro & Antonio Lijoi & Igor Prunster, 2011. "Asymptotics for a Bayesian nonparametric estimator of species richness," Quaderni di Dipartimento 144, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    8. Mena, Ramsés H. & Walker, Stephen G., 2012. "An EPPF from independent sequences of geometric random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(6), pages 1059-1066.
    9. Antonio Lijoi & Igor Pruenster & Stephen G. Walker, 2008. "Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from conditional Gibbs structures," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 06-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    10. Rodríguez, Abel, 2013. "On the Jeffreys prior for the multivariate Ewens distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(6), pages 1539-1546.
    11. Antonio Lijoi & Bernardo Nipoti & Igor Prünster, 2013. "Dependent mixture models: clustering and borrowing information," DEM Working Papers Series 046, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.

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