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Identifiability and estimation of structural vector autoregressive models for subsampled and mixed-frequency time series

Author

Listed:
  • A Tank
  • E B Fox
  • A Shojaie

Abstract

SummaryCausal inference in multivariate time series is challenging because the sampling rate may not be as fast as the time scale of the causal interactions, so the observed series is a subsampled version of the desired series. Furthermore, series may be observed at different sampling rates, yielding mixed-frequency series. To determine instantaneous and lagged effects between series at the causal scale, we take a model-based approach that relies on structural vector autoregressive models. We present a unifying framework for parameter identifiability and estimation under subsampling and mixed frequencies when the noise, or shocks, is non-Gaussian. By studying the structural case, we develop identifiability and estimation methods for the causal structure of lagged and instantaneous effects at the desired time scale. We further derive an exact expectation-maximization algorithm for inference in both subsampled and mixed-frequency settings. We validate our approach in simulated scenarios and on a climate and an econometric dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • A Tank & E B Fox & A Shojaie, 2019. "Identifiability and estimation of structural vector autoregressive models for subsampled and mixed-frequency time series," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 106(2), pages 433-452.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:106:y:2019:i:2:p:433-452.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/biomet/asz007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Bormetti & Fulvio Corsi, 2021. "A Lucas Critique Compliant SVAR model with Observation-driven Time-varying Parameters," Papers 2107.05263, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    2. Brandts, Jordi & El Baroudi, Sabrine & Huber, Stefanie J. & Rott, Christina, 2021. "Gender differences in private and public goal setting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 222-247.
    3. Zadrozny, Peter A., 2022. "Linear identification of linear rational-expectations models by exogenous variables reconciles Lucas and Sims," CFS Working Paper Series 682, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Peter A. Zadrozny, 2022. "Linear Identification of Linear Rational-Expectations Models by Exogenous Variables Reconciles Lucas and Sims," CESifo Working Paper Series 10078, CESifo.
    5. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2023. "Discrete mixtures of normals pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 643-665.
    6. Adam Lee & Geert Mesters, 2021. "Robust non-Gaussian inference for linear simultaneous equations models," Economics Working Papers 1792, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Lukas Hoesch & Adam Lee & Geert Mesters, 2022. "Robust inference for non-Gaussian SVAR models," Economics Working Papers 1847, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Lukas Hoesch & Adam Lee & Geert Mesters, 2022. "Locally Robust Inference for Non-Gaussian SVAR Models," Working Papers 1367, Barcelona School of Economics.

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