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Analysis of the Accuracy of USDA Crop Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • G. Gunnelson
  • W. D. Dobson
  • S. Pamperin

Abstract

Accuracy of USDA crop forecasts increased moderately over the 1929–1970 period. However, USDA's first forecasts of crop production tended to underestimate crop size and the size of year-to-year changes in production. USDA also undercompensates for errors in earlier forecasts when developing revised crop forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Gunnelson & W. D. Dobson & S. Pamperin, 1972. "Analysis of the Accuracy of USDA Crop Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(4_Part_1), pages 639-645.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:54:y:1972:i:4_part_1:p:639-645.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1238541
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mueller, Rolf A.E. & Sumner, Daniel A., 1985. "Are Crop Forecasts News? The Impact of U.S.D.A. Announcements on Futures Market Prices," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278570, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Sanders, Dwight & Altman, Ira J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Anderson, Rachel, 2009. "Using USDA Production Forecasts: Adjusting for Smoothing," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2009, pages 1-9.
    3. Covey, Theodore & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2003. "Evaluating USDA Forecasts of Farm Assets: 1986-2002," 2003 Regional Committee NCT-194, October 6-7, 2003; Kansas City, Missouri 132405, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    4. Botto, Augusto C. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2006. "Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21332, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2007. "Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37563, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2002. "An Evaluation Of Crop Forecast Accuracy For Corn And Soybeans: Usda And Private Information Services," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19068, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    8. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Choi, Jin Wook, 1982. "An analysis of price responses to public information: a case study of the USDA corn crop forecasts," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800008030, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. repec:ags:jrapmc:122314 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Unknown, 2004. "Agricultural Finance Markets in Transition Proceedings of The Annual Meeting of NCT-194 Hosted by the Center for the Study of Rural America, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City October 6 - 7, 2003," Research Bulletins 122103, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.

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