Inflation Targeting and Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland: A Success Story?
AbstractQualitative survey data on inflation expectations can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of probability methods implemented to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations. Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of inflation targeting. One of commonly emphasised features of this strategy is that it has proved to be useful in anchoring inflation expectations. The paper proposes a manner in which the achievement of this goal may be assessed ex-post. It is argued that to make such an assessment it is not sufficient to examine changes in the level of inflation expectations relative to inflation target, but it is necessary to analyse in detail the formation of inflation expectations, in particular the degree to which requirements of rational expectations hypothesis, namely: unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficency, are fulfilled. The examination of consumer expectations in Poland leads to the conclusion that even if the adoption of inflation targeting in Poland in 1998 and the commitment of monetary authorities to reach price stability reflected in a fast disinflation process decreased the level of inflation expectations, it has not sufficiently increased their rationality yet. On the other hand, there appear some signs of consumer inflation expectations in Poland becoming slightly more forwardlooking in the most recent period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.
Volume (Year): 2005 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Inflation expectations; Surveys; Rationality; Inflation targeting; Poland;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Tomasz Åyziak & Jan Przystupa & Ewa WrÃ³bel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission Poland: A study of the importance of interest rate and credit channels," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Tomasz Łyziak, 2009. "Is Inflation Perceived by Polish Consumers Driven by Prices of Frequently Bought Goods and Services?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 100-117, March.
- Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.