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Indicator models of real GDP growth in the major OECD economies

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  • Nigel Pain
  • Franck Sédillot

Abstract

Accurate and timely information on the current state of economic activity is an important requirement for the policymaking process. Delays in the publication of official statistics mean that a complete picture of economic developments within a particular period emerges only some time after that period has elapsed. Thus considerable resources are, at times, devoted to making an assessment of the immediate past and the current conjuncture as well as projections about future developments. In practice, a regular flow of information is provided by the large number of quantitative and qualitative indicators that appear each month for different sectors of the economy. One challenge for policymakers is to put these together in a consistent manner to obtain a picture of the overall state of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel Pain & Franck Sédillot, 2006. "Indicator models of real GDP growth in the major OECD economies," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(1), pages 167-217.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecokaa:5l9vc3pl40r8
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-v2005-art7-en
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    Cited by:

    1. D'Elia, Enrico, 2010. "Predictions vs preliminary sample estimates," MPRA Paper 36070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    5. D’Elia Enrico, 2014. "Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.

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