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Box B: How likely are we to see a major recession in 2022?

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  • Dixon, Peter

Abstract

Until relatively recently it seemed unlikely that the UK economy would fall into another recession - by which we mean in this case a year-on-year fall in GDP - as the country continued its post-Covid recovery. Since our February 2022 forecast, however, a number of factors have conspired to cast clouds over the economic outlook. In addition to the inflation surge, resulting from rising energy costs and supply constraints in the wake of the pandemic, the economy now faces an additional uncertainty shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Peter, 2022. "Box B: How likely are we to see a major recession in 2022?," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 6, pages 21-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:6:y:2022:p:21-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Lisauskaite, Elena, 2020. "Covid-19 Impacts On Destitution In The Uk," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 253, pages 77-85, August.
    3. Marc F. Bellemare, 2015. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 1-21.
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