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Is the Ageing of the French Population Unavoidable?

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  • Nathalie Blanpain

Abstract

[eng] A population projection is not a certain prediction, but rather an estimate of what the future evolution of the population might be under certain assumptions about changes in mortality, fertility and migration, around a central scenario that suggests a continuation of recent demographic trends. This article looks at the assumptions made for the population projections conducted for France in 2016. It first reviews the approach used by Insee to establish them, and then examines the more or less certain nature of the main results. The ageing process observed for more than a century is expected to continue; however, if an indicator based on "prospective age" is used, the population would not age. The evolution of the population as a whole is uncertain. In 2070, the size of the population of the 28-member European Union would be close to that of 2019. The improvement in life expectancy combined with a positive migratory balance would compensate for a fertility level that does not allow for the renewal of generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathalie Blanpain, 2020. "Is the Ageing of the French Population Unavoidable?," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 65-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2020_520d_5
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nico Keilman, 2020. "Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 49-64.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-

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