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Protest Puzzles: Tullock's Paradox, Hong Kong Experiment, and the Strength of Weak States

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  • Mehdi Shadmehr

Abstract

Tullock's (1971) Paradox of Revolution uses an Olsonian logic to conclude that revolutions should not happen in large societies. et al.'s (2019) Hong Kong Experiment shows that, in sharp contrast to the literature that models protest as a coordination problem, actions can be strategic substitutes. We develop a model to address these standing puzzles, and investigate its empirical implications. We show that when the movement's goal is modest, free-riding concerns dominate the citizens' interactions, making their actions strategic substitutes. By contrast, when the movement's goal is to topple the regime, coordination concerns dominate, and actions become strategic complements. Moreover, with natural other-regarding preferences, some citizens participate in costly revolt even in large societies. A new empirical implication of the model is that as a regime grows stronger in the sense that a larger fraction of citizens is needed to overthrow it, the likelihood of regime change may rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Shadmehr, 2021. "Protest Puzzles: Tullock's Paradox, Hong Kong Experiment, and the Strength of Weak States," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 16(3), pages 245-264, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jlqjps:100.00019038
    DOI: 10.1561/100.00019038
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    Cited by:

    1. Anselm Hager & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2023. "Political Activists as Free Riders: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(653), pages 2068-2084.
    2. Cantoni, Davide & Heizlsperger, Louis-Jonas & Yang, David Y. & Yuchtman, Noam & Zhang, Y. Jane, 2022. "The fundamental determinants of protest participation: Evidence from Hong Kong’s antiauthoritarian movement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    3. Boris Ginzburg & José-Alberto Guerra, 2021. "Guns, pets, and strikes: an experiment on identity and political action," Documentos CEDE 19932, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Jarke-Neuert, Johannes & Perino, Grischa & Schwickert, Henrike, 2021. "Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest," SocArXiv sh6dm, Center for Open Science.

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