Impactos da liberalização do comércio de etanol entre Brasil e Estados Unidos sobre o uso da terra e emissão de CO2 [Impacts of the removal of ethanol trade barriers between Brazil and U.S. on land use and CO2 emissions]

This paper investigates the potential impacts from a cut in the U.S. trade tariffs to the Brazilian ethanol on land use and greenhouse gas emissions from such changes. A version of the GTAP global economic model is used to simulate how an increase in the Brazilian ethanol production could affect land use and CO2emissions in the country and worldwide. The results indicate an increases in cropland areas and decrease in pastureland and forest areas, with small increments in CO2 emissions, which are offset by lower emissions from reduced consumption of fossil fuels. It can be concluded that the potential of sugarcane ethanol in reducing net greenhouse gas emissions is not affected by the trade liberalization, even when changes in land use are considered.