IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nea/journl/y2019i42p177-186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pension Policy and Population Ageing

Author

Listed:
  • Gurvich, E.

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russia
    Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

We are demonstrating that retirement age increase that started in Russia in 2019 was an inevitable implication of adverse demographic trends combined with the policy of keeping constant ratio of average pension to average wage, pursued by the government in 2010s. More general 'Pension Trilemma' is proposed which states that if number of pensioners per employee is rising there is no way to keep fixed pension benefit to wage ratio and retain pension system sustainability. Higher retirement age is acceptable as an increase in life expectancy (the major cause of population ageing) when it is accompanied with proportional growth of the 'healthy life expectancy' which is in a sense proxy for the age of incapacity for work. New indicators of ageing are defined as average numbers of years spent by members of a particular cohort in a working age and in retirement. We demonstrate that their ratio is rapidly shifting in Russia towards retirement period starting mid-2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurvich, E., 2019. "Pension Policy and Population Ageing," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 177-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2019:i:42:p:177-186
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2019-42-2-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2019-42-177-186r.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31737/2221-2264-2019-42-2-10?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Diamond & Nicholas Barr, 2006. "(UBS Pensions Series 041) The Economics of Pensions," FMG Discussion Papers dp563, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Evsey T. Gurvich & Maria A. Ivanova, 2018. "Economic Effect of Population Ageing and Pension Reforms," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 9-22, October.
    3. Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2006. "The Economics of Pensions," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 22(1), pages 15-39, Spring.
    4. Jan Bonenkamp & Lex Meijdam & Eduard Ponds & Ed Westerhout, 2017. "Ageing-driven pension reforms," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 953-976, July.
    5. A. Vishnevsky & S. Vasin & A. Ramonov., 2012. "Retirement Age and Life Expectancy in the Russian Federation," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
    6. A. Kudrin & E. Gurvich., 2012. "Population Aging and Risks of Budget Crisis," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 3.
    7. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Mark Rider & Riatu Qibthiyyah & Sally Wallace, 2006. "Who Bears the Burden of Taxes on Labor Income in Russia?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0621, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. V. A. Gurtov & E. A. Pitukhin, 2020. "The Impact of Pension Reform on the Forecasted Employed Population in the Regions of the Arctic and the Far East," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 411-420, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vishnevsky, A. & Shcherbakova, E., 2019. "Demography: Pros and Cons of Raising the Retirement Age," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 148-167.
    2. Carlos Santiago Guzmán Gutiérrez, 2019. "Sistema Pensional Colombiano: implicaciones de la educación financiera sobre las decisiones de traslado de los individuos," Documentos CEDE 17677, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Andersen, Torben M. & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Gestsson, Marias H., 2021. "Pareto-improving transition to fully funded pensions under myopia," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 169-212, June.
    4. van Dalen, H.P. & Henkens, K. & Koedijk, C.G. & Slager, A.M.H., 2010. "Decision Making in the Pension Fund Board Room : An Experiment with Dutch Pension Fund Trustees," Discussion Paper 2010-18, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Mauro Visaggio, 2019. "Extending the retirement age for preserving the costitutive pension system mission," Public Finance Research Papers 40, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome.
    6. Gustavo Ferro, 2021. "¿Qué aprendimos de las reformas previsionales argentinas de 1994 y de 2008?," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 810, Universidad del CEMA.
    7. Evsey T. Gurvich, 2019. "Long-Term Global Trends in Pension Policy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 9-26, December.
    8. Bishnu, Monisankar & Garg, Shresth & Garg, Tishara & Ray, Tridip, 2021. "Optimal intergenerational transfers: Public education and pensions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Gregory Ponthiere, 2020. "A theory of reverse retirement," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(5), pages 1618-1659, September.
    10. Brown, Alessio J.G. & Fraikin, Anne-Lore, 2022. "The old-age pension household replacement rate in Belgium," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    11. Martin Werding, 2016. "One Pillar Crumbling, the Others Too Short: Old-Age Provision in Germany," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 237(1), pages 13-21, August.
    12. Bielecki, Marcin & Goraus, Karolina & Hagemejer, Jan & Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2015. "Small assumptions (can) have a large bearing: evaluating pension system reforms with OLG models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-221.
    13. Teodoras Medaiskis & Tadas Gudaitis & Jaroslav Me?kovski, 2016. "The Effect of Second Pillar Pension to Old Age Pension: Lithuanian Case," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(4), pages 20-31, December.
    14. Malgorzata Gumola-Kardas, 2021. "Change in a Pension System: A Manageable and Measurable Process?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 421-433.
    15. Aggarwal, Raj & Goodell, John W., 2013. "Political-economy of pension plans: Impact of institutions, gender, and culture," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1860-1879.
    16. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2019. "The Cost of Holding Foreign Exchange Reserves," CID Working Papers 353, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    17. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & André Fernando Rodrigues Rocha da Silva, 2019. "Assessing Pension Expenditure Determinants – the Case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2019/68, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Koomen, Miriam & Wicht, Laurence, 2022. "Pension systems and the current account: An empirical exploration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Nancy Quinceno Cárdenas, 2014. "Modelación basada en agentes en el sistema pensional colombiano. Una aproximación desde el mercado laboral y la dinámica poblacional," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, September.
    20. Sabina Hod?i? & Lucija Rogi? Duman?i? & Emira Be?i?, 2019. "Financial stability of pension system in the European Union member states," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912130, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension reform; retirement age; population ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2019:i:42:p:177-186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Tcharykov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nearuea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.