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Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Mengel

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Alexander Nauels

    (The University of Melbourne)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    ETH Zurich
    Oxford University)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    Climate Analytics
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

Abstract

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Mengel & Alexander Nauels & Joeri Rogelj & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2018. "Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-02985-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Gjoka, Kristian & Rismanchi, Behzad & Crawford, Robert H., 2023. "Fifth-generation district heating and cooling systems: A review of recent advancements and implementation barriers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. André Luiz Lopes Toledo & Emílio Lèbre La Rovere, 2018. "Urban Mobility and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Status, Public Policies, and Scenarios in a Developing Economy City, Natal, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Atif Jahanger & Bo Yang & Wei-Chiao Huang & Muntasir Murshed & Muhammad Usman & Magdalena Radulescu, 2023. "Dynamic linkages between globalization, human capital, and carbon dioxide emissions: empirical evidence from developing economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9307-9335, September.
    4. Julian David Hunt & Edward Byers, 2019. "Reducing sea level rise with submerged barriers and dams in Greenland," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 779-794, June.
    5. Keiner, Dominik & Salcedo-Puerto, Orlando & Immonen, Ekaterina & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M. & Nizam, Yoosuf & Shadiya, Fathmath & Duval, Justine & Delahaye, Timur & Gulagi, Ashish & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Powering an island energy system by offshore floating technologies towards 100% renewables: A case for the Maldives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).

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