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The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • M. R. Patrick

    (Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

  • B. F. Houghton

    (University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa)

  • K. R. Anderson

    (California Volcano Observatory)

  • M. P. Poland

    (Cascades Volcano Observatory)

  • E. Montgomery-Brown

    (Cascades Volcano Observatory)

  • I. Johanson

    (Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

  • W. Thelen

    (Cascades Volcano Observatory)

  • T. Elias

    (Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

Abstract

The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relatively minor changes at Puʻu ʻŌʻō to cause major destruction and historic changes across the volcano. Eruption forecasting is inherently challenging in cascading scenarios where magmatic systems may prime gradually and trigger on small events.

Suggested Citation

  • M. R. Patrick & B. F. Houghton & K. R. Anderson & M. P. Poland & E. Montgomery-Brown & I. Johanson & W. Thelen & T. Elias, 2020. "The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19190-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19190-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Maria Petrone & Silvio Mollo & Ralf Gertisser & Yannick Buret & Piergiorgio Scarlato & Elisabetta Bello & Daniele Andronico & Ben Ellis & Alessio Pontesilli & Gianfilippo Astis & Pier Paolo Gia, 2022. "Magma recharge and mush rejuvenation drive paroxysmal activity at Stromboli volcano," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Jens Karstens & Gareth J. Crutchley & Thor H. Hansteen & Jonas Preine & Steven Carey & Judith Elger & Michel Kühn & Paraskevi Nomikou & Florian Schmid & Giacomo Dalla Valle & Karim Kelfoun & Christian, 2023. "Cascading events during the 1650 tsunamigenic eruption of Kolumbo volcano," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Jonathan M. Castro & Yves Feisel, 2022. "Eruption of ultralow-viscosity basanite magma at Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, Canary Islands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.

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