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Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

Author

Listed:
  • Omar Bellprat

    (Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31
    Universtitätsstrasse 16)

  • Virginie Guemas

    (Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31)

  • Francisco Doblas-Reyes

    (Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31
    ICREA, Pg. Lluis Companys)

  • Markus G. Donat

    (Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31
    University of New South Wales)

Abstract

Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme events to climate change by comparing climate model experiments where the influence of an external driver can be included or artificially suppressed. Many of these results however did not properly account for model errors in simulating the probabilities of extreme event occurrences. Here we show, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change. This study illustrates the need to correct for this type of model error in order to provide trustworthy assessments of climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Bellprat & Virginie Guemas & Francisco Doblas-Reyes & Markus G. Donat, 2019. "Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09729-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09729-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Henri F. Drake & Geoffrey Henderson, 2022. "A defense of usable climate mitigation science: how science can contribute to social movements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Vittal Hari & Subimal Ghosh & Wei Zhang & Rohini Kumar, 2022. "Strong influence of north Pacific Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Fezzi, Carlo & Menapace, Luisa & Raffaelli, Roberta, 2021. "Estimating risk preferences integrating insurance choices with subjective beliefs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Hötte, Kerstin & Jee, Su Jung, 2022. "Knowledge for a warmer world: A patent analysis of climate change adaptation technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Thomas R. Mortlock & Jonathan Nott & Ryan Crompton & Valentina Koschatzky, 2023. "A long-term view of tropical cyclone risk in Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 571-588, August.
    6. Tian-Yuan Huang & Liangping Ding & Yong-Qiang Yu & Lei Huang & Liying Yang, 2023. "From AR5 to AR6: exploring research advancement in climate change based on scientific evidence from IPCC WGI reports," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(9), pages 5227-5245, September.
    7. Yu Zhuang & Aiguo Xing & Qiang Sun & Yuehua Jiang, 2023. "Insights into initiation of typhoon-induced deep-seated landslides in Southeast coastal China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 721-749, October.

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