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Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie Roe

    (University of Virginia
    Climate Focus)

  • Charlotte Streck

    (Climate Focus)

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Bronson Griscom

    (The Nature Conservancy)

  • Laurent Drouet

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE))

  • Oliver Fricko

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Mykola Gusti

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Nancy Harris

    (World Resources Institute)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Zeke Hausfather

    (University of California Berkeley)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Jo House

    (University of Bristol)

  • Gert-Jan Nabuurs

    (Wageningen University and Research
    Wageningen University)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • María José Sanz Sánchez

    (University of the Basque Country)

  • Jonathan Sanderman

    (Woods Hole Research Center)

  • Pete Smith

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Elke Stehfest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Deborah Lawrence

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here we combine a review of modelled pathways and literature on mitigation strategies, and develop a land-sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector and deploying measures in agriculture, forestry, wetlands and bioenergy could feasibly and sustainably contribute about 30%, or 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year, of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5 °C target, but it will require substantially more effort than the 2 °C target. Risks and barriers must be addressed and incentives will be necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security and environmental co-benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Roe & Charlotte Streck & Michael Obersteiner & Stefan Frank & Bronson Griscom & Laurent Drouet & Oliver Fricko & Mykola Gusti & Nancy Harris & Tomoko Hasegawa & Zeke Hausfather & Petr Havlík, 2019. "Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 817-828, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0591-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Renata Dagiliūtė & Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė, 2024. "Impact of Land-Use Changes on Climate Change Mitigation Goals: The Case of Lithuania," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Chaozhu Li & Xiaoliang Li & Wei Jia, 2022. "Non-Farm Employment Experience, Risk Preferences, and Low-Carbon Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from 1843 Grain Farmers in 14 Provinces in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Marta Kozicka & Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Eva Wollenberg & Andre Deppermann & David Leclère & Pekka Lauri & Rebekah Moses & Esther Boere & Stefan Frank & Chris Davis & Esther Park & Noel Gurwick, 2023. "Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Susan C. Cook-Patton & C. Ronnie Drever & Bronson W. Griscom & Kelley Hamrick & Hamilton Hardman & Timm Kroeger & Pablo Pacheco & Shyla Raghav & Martha Stevenson & Chris Webb & Samantha Yeo & Peter W., 2021. "Protect, manage and then restore lands for climate mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1027-1034, December.
    5. Vera, Ivan & Wicke, Birka & Lamers, Patrick & Cowie, Annette & Repo, Anna & Heukels, Bas & Zumpf, Colleen & Styles, David & Parish, Esther & Cherubini, Francesco & Berndes, Göran & Jager, Henriette & , 2022. "Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Rosa, Lorenzo & Mazzotti, Marco, 2022. "Potential for hydrogen production from sustainable biomass with carbon capture and storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Eric C. Davis & Brent Sohngen & David J. Lewis, 2022. "The effect of carbon fertilization on naturally regenerated and planted US forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Peter Woods Ellis & Aaron Marr Page & Stephen Wood & Joseph Fargione & Yuta J. Masuda & Vanessa Carrasco Denney & Campbell Moore & Timm Kroeger & Bronson Griscom & Jonathan Sanderman & Tyson Atleo & R, 2024. "The principles of natural climate solutions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Song Wang & Yixiao Wang & Chenxin Zhou & Xueli Wang, 2022. "Projections in Various Scenarios and the Impact of Economy, Population, and Technology for Regional Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-31, September.
    11. Wang, Xue-Chao & Jiang, Peng & Yang, Lan & Fan, Yee Van & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Wang, Yutao, 2021. "Extended water-energy nexus contribution to environmentally-related sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Xu Deng & Fei Teng & Minpeng Chen & Zhangliu Du & Bin Wang & Renqiang Li & Pan Wang, 2024. "Exploring negative emission potential of biochar to achieve carbon neutrality goal in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Chu, Long & Grafton, R. Quentin & Nguyen, Hai, 2022. "A global analysis of the break-even prices to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide via forest plantation and avoided deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    14. Emily McGlynn & Serena Li & Michael Berger & Meredith Amend & Kandice Harper, 2022. "Addressing uncertainty and bias in land use, land use change, and forestry greenhouse gas inventories," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-25, January.
    15. Jiaqi Han & Dongyan Wang & Shuwen Zhang, 2022. "Momoge Internationally Important Wetland: Ecosystem Integrity Remote Assessment and Spatial Pattern Optimization Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, August.
    16. Robert J. Brecha & Gaurav Ganti & Robin D. Lamboll & Zebedee Nicholls & Bill Hare & Jared Lewis & Malte Meinshausen & Michiel Schaeffer & Christopher J. Smith & Matthew J. Gidden, 2022. "Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Abhijeet Mishra & Florian Humpenöder & Galina Churkina & Christopher P. O. Reyer & Felicitas Beier & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Alexander Popp, 2022. "Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Elias Hurmekoski & Juulia Suuronen & Lassi Ahlvik & Janni Kunttu & Tanja Myllyviita, 2022. "Substitution impacts of wood‐based textile fibers: Influence of market assumptions," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1564-1577, August.
    19. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Marinakis, Vangelis & Nikas, Alexandros & Chira, Katerina & Flamos, Alexandros & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Monetising behavioural change as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector: A case study in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    20. Yajuan Wang & Yongheng Rao & Hongbo Zhu, 2022. "Revealing the Impact of Protected Areas on Land Cover Volatility in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    21. Fuller, Madisen & Baker, Justin & Roberts, Zoey & Latta, Gret & Ohrel, Sara & Gower, Tom, 2023. "Projecting the spatial distribution of tree planting under different policy incentive structures," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 337099, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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