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High carbon and biodiversity costs from converting Africa’s wet savannahs to cropland

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy D. Searchinger

    (Princeton University)

  • Lyndon Estes

    (Princeton University)

  • Philip K. Thornton

    (CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), PO Box 30709, ILRI Nairobi 00100, Kenya)

  • Tim Beringer

    (IASS Potsdam, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V., Berliner Strasse 130 D-14467 Potsdam, Germany
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A 31 14473 Potsdam, Germany)

  • An Notenbaert

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Kasarani Rd, ICIPE Complex, PO Box 823 00621 Nairobi, Kenya)

  • Daniel Rubenstein

    (Princeton University)

  • Ralph Heimlich

    (Agricultural Conservation Economics)

  • Rachel Licker

    (Princeton University)

  • Mario Herrero

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Agriculture Flagship, 306 Carmody Road, St Lucia Queensland 4067, Australia)

Abstract

Do the wet savannahs and shrublands of Africa provide a large reserve of potential croplands to produce food staples or bioenergy with low carbon and biodiversity costs? We find that only small percentages of these lands have meaningful potential to be low-carbon sources of maize (∼2%) or soybeans (9.5–11.5%), meaning that their conversion would release at least one-third less carbon per ton of crop than released on average for the production of those crops on existing croplands. Factoring in land-use change, less than 1% is likely to produce cellulosic ethanol that would meet European standards for greenhouse gas reductions. Biodiversity effects of converting these lands are also likely to be significant as bird and mammal richness is comparable to that of the world’s tropical forest regions. Our findings contrast with influential studies that assume these lands provide a large, low-environmental-cost cropland reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy D. Searchinger & Lyndon Estes & Philip K. Thornton & Tim Beringer & An Notenbaert & Daniel Rubenstein & Ralph Heimlich & Rachel Licker & Mario Herrero, 2015. "High carbon and biodiversity costs from converting Africa’s wet savannahs to cropland," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 481-486, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate2584
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2584
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    Cited by:

    1. Jha, Priyanka & Schmidt, Stefan, 2021. "State of biofuel development in sub-Saharan Africa: How far sustainable?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Gatti, Nicolas & Cecil, Michael & Baylis, Kathy & Estes, Lyndon & Blekking, Jordan & Heckelei, Thomas & Vergopolan, Noemi & Evans, Tom, 2023. "Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. María Fernanda de Santiago & Margenny Barrios & Alejandro D’Anatro & Luis Fernando García & Ary Mailhos & Gabriel Pompozzi & Sofía Rehermann & Miguel Simó & Giancarlo Tesitore & Franco Teixeira de Mel, 2022. "From Theory to Practice: Can LEAP/FAO Biodiversity Assessment Guidelines Be a Useful Tool for Knowing the Environmental Status of Livestock Systems?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-34, December.

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