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Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels

Author

Listed:
  • Li-Jing Liu

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Hong-Dian Jiang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    China University of Geosciences)

  • Qiao-Mei Liang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Felix Creutzig

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
    Technical University Berlin)

  • Hua Liao

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Yun-Fei Yao

    (Sinopec)

  • Xiang-Yan Qian

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Zhong-Yuan Ren

    (CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute)

  • Jing Qing

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Qi-Ran Cai

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Ottmar Edenhofer

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
    Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Yi-Ming Wei

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine conflict lays bare the dependence of the European Union (EU) on fossil fuel imports from Russia. Here, we use a global computable general equilibrium model, C3IAM/GEEPA, to estimate CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP) impact of embargoing fossil fuels from Russia. We find that embargoes induce more than 10% reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU and over 5% increases of emissions in Russia, while both regions experience GDP losses (around 2% (US $486 billion) for the EU and about 5% (US $149 billion) for Russia, ignoring the relative impact of other sanctions). Reacting to increasing energy prices with demand-side response inside the EU would increase CO2 emission savings, and ease GDP losses; however, the world would continue to suffer economic damage (US $655 billion).

Suggested Citation

  • Li-Jing Liu & Hong-Dian Jiang & Qiao-Mei Liang & Felix Creutzig & Hua Liao & Yun-Fei Yao & Xiang-Yan Qian & Zhong-Yuan Ren & Jing Qing & Qi-Ran Cai & Ottmar Edenhofer & Yi-Ming Wei, 2023. "Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 290-296, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01606-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01606-7
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    Cited by:

    1. José Ramos Pires Manso & Rosa M. Martínez Vázquez & Juan Milán García & Jaime de Pablo Valenciano, 2023. "Renewable Energies and Blue Economy: New Trends in Global Research," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Dong, Kangyin & Qing, Jing & Teng, Qiang, 2023. "The role of technical change in low-carbon transformation and crises in the electricity market: A CGE analysis with R&D investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Michael Fratita & Florin Popescu & Eugen Rusu & Ion V. Ion & Răzvan Mahu, 2023. "Romanian Energy System Analysis (Production, Consumption, and Distribution)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-14, August.

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