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Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Author

Listed:
  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED, Ecole des Ponts)

  • Thomas Gallic

    (CIRED, CNRS)

  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Panagiotis Fragkos

    (E3-Modelling)

  • Daniel Huppmann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Marc Jaxa-Rozen

    (University of Geneva)

  • Ilkka Keppo

    (Aalto University)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Tamás Krisztin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Giacomo Marangoni

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Steve Pye

    (University College London)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Roberto Schaeffer

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Massimo Tavoni

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    Politecnico di Milano)

  • Evelina Trutnevyte

    (University of Geneva)

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Fabian Wagner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Guivarch & Thomas Gallic & Nico Bauer & Panagiotis Fragkos & Daniel Huppmann & Marc Jaxa-Rozen & Ilkka Keppo & Elmar Kriegler & Tamás Krisztin & Giacomo Marangoni & Steve Pye & Keywan Riahi & R, 2022. "Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(5), pages 428-435, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01349-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ploy Achakulwisut & Peter Erickson & Céline Guivarch & Roberto Schaeffer & Elina Brutschin & Steve Pye, 2023. "Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Heinisch, Verena & Dujardin, Jérôme & Gabrielli, Paolo & Jain, Pranjal & Lehning, Michael & Sansavini, Giovanni & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Schaffner, Christian & Schwarz, Marius & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Inter-comparison of spatial models for high shares of renewable electricity in Switzerland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    3. Goldstein, Michael A. & Lynch, Amanda H. & Li, Xueke & Norchi, Charles H., 2022. "Sanctions or sea ice: Costs of closing the Northern Sea Route," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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