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Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

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  • Niklas Boers

    (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin
    Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research
    Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter)

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Boers, 2021. "Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 680-688, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01097-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maya Ben-Yami & Vanessa Skiba & Sebastian Bathiany & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Thomas M. Bury & Daniel Dylewsky & Chris T. Bauch & Madhur Anand & Leon Glass & Alvin Shrier & Gil Bub, 2023. "Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Beatriz Arellano-Nava & Paul R. Halloran & Chris A. Boulton & James Scourse & Paul G. Butler & David J. Reynolds & Timothy M. Lenton, 2022. "Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Kerry Emanuel, 2021. "Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Lars Max & Dirk Nürnberg & Cristiano M. Chiessi & Marlene M. Lenz & Stefan Mulitza, 2022. "Subsurface ocean warming preceded Heinrich Events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Stephen Keen & Timothy M. Lenton & Antoine Godin & Devrim Yilmaz & Matheus Grasselli & Timothy J. Garrett, 2021. "Economists' erroneous estimates of damages from climate change," Papers 2108.07847, arXiv.org.
    7. Parker Albert & Ollier Clifford, 2021. "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is not collapsing," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 40(3), pages 163-167, September.
    8. Sarah T. Friedman & Martha M. Muñoz, 2023. "A latitudinal gradient of deep-sea invasions for marine fishes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Florian Diekert & Daniel Heyen & Frikk Nesje & Soheil Shayegh, 2024. "Balancing the Risk of Tipping: Early Warning Systems from Detection to Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 10892, CESifo.
    10. Naoki Masuda & Kazuyuki Aihara & Neil G. MacLaren, 2024. "Anticipating regime shifts by mixing early warning signals from different nodes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Elan J. Levy & Hubert B. Vonhof & Miryam Bar-Matthews & Alfredo Martínez-García & Avner Ayalon & Alan Matthews & Vered Silverman & Shira Raveh-Rubin & Tami Zilberman & Gal Yasur & Mareike Schmitt & Ge, 2023. "Weakened AMOC related to cooling and atmospheric circulation shifts in the last interglacial Eastern Mediterranean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Felix Ekardt & Marie Bärenwaldt, 2023. "The German Climate Verdict, Human Rights, Paris Target, and EU Climate Law," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Simon L. L. Michel & Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Guillaume Gastineau & Juliette Mignot & Gerard McCarthy & Myriam Khodri, 2022. "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Kelly Wanser & Sarah J. Doherty & James W. Hurrell & Alex Wong, 2022. "Near-term climate risks and sunlight reflection modification: a roadmap approach for physical sciences research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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